1 00:00:36,850 --> 00:00:53,979 I want you to reimagine how life is organized on Earth. 2 00:00:55,759 --> 00:00:59,219 Think of the planet like a human body that we inhabit. 3 00:01:00,719 --> 00:01:05,540 The skeleton is the transportation system of roads and railways, 4 00:01:05,540 --> 00:01:08,260 bridges and tunnels, air and seaports 5 00:01:08,260 --> 00:01:11,319 that enable our mobility across the continents. 6 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:14,719 The vascular system that powers the body 7 00:01:14,719 --> 00:01:17,939 are the oil and gas pipelines and electricity grids 8 00:01:17,939 --> 00:01:18,959 that distribute energy. 9 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:21,739 And the nervous system of communications 10 00:01:21,739 --> 00:01:27,319 is the internet cables, satellites, cellular networks and data centers 11 00:01:27,319 --> 00:01:29,340 that allow us to share information. 12 00:01:30,439 --> 00:01:33,879 This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix 13 00:01:33,879 --> 00:01:39,260 already consists of 64 million kilometers of roads, 14 00:01:40,099 --> 00:01:42,180 four million kilometers of railways, 15 00:01:42,180 --> 00:01:44,760 two million kilometers of pipelines 16 00:01:44,760 --> 00:01:48,939 and one million kilometers of internet cables. 17 00:01:49,879 --> 00:01:52,200 What about international borders? 18 00:01:53,480 --> 00:01:57,180 We have less than 500,000 kilometers of borders. 19 00:01:58,340 --> 00:02:00,700 Let's build a better map of the world. 20 00:02:01,700 --> 00:02:04,680 And we can start by overcoming some ancient mythology. 21 00:02:05,920 --> 00:02:08,919 There's a saying with which all students of history are familiar. 22 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:12,199 Geography is destiny. 23 00:02:12,860 --> 00:02:14,419 Sounds so grave, doesn't it? 24 00:02:14,979 --> 00:02:16,699 It's such a fatalistic adage. 25 00:02:17,460 --> 00:02:20,960 It tells us that landlocked countries are condemned to be poor, 26 00:02:21,620 --> 00:02:24,219 that small countries cannot escape their larger neighbors, 27 00:02:24,840 --> 00:02:27,460 that vast distances are insurmountable. 28 00:02:28,599 --> 00:02:31,639 But every journey I take around the world, 29 00:02:32,159 --> 00:02:35,680 I see an even greater force sweeping the planet. 30 00:02:37,120 --> 00:02:37,680 Connectivity. 31 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:42,780 The global connectivity revolution, in all of its forms, 32 00:02:42,919 --> 00:02:44,699 transportation, energy and communications, 33 00:02:45,319 --> 00:02:49,520 has enabled such a quantum leap in the mobility of people, 34 00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:51,860 of goods, of resources, of knowledge, 35 00:02:52,620 --> 00:02:57,000 such that we can no longer even think of geography as distinct from it. 36 00:02:57,800 --> 00:03:01,599 In fact, I view the two forces as fusing together 37 00:03:01,599 --> 00:03:03,740 into what I call connectography. 38 00:03:03,740 --> 00:03:12,840 Connectography represents a quantum leap in the mobility of people, resources, ideas, 39 00:03:12,840 --> 00:03:21,900 but it is an evolution, an evolution of the world from political geography, which is how 40 00:03:21,900 --> 00:03:28,979 we legally divide the world, to functional geography, which is how we actually use the 41 00:03:28,979 --> 00:03:34,800 the world, from nations and borders to infrastructure and supply chains. 42 00:03:34,819 --> 00:03:38,319 Our global system is evolving 43 00:03:38,340 --> 00:03:41,960 from the vertically integrated empires of the 19th century 44 00:03:41,979 --> 00:03:46,240 through the horizontally interdependent nations of the 20th century 45 00:03:46,259 --> 00:03:52,319 into a global network civilization in the 21st century. 46 00:03:52,340 --> 00:03:55,680 Connectivity, not sovereignty, 47 00:03:55,680 --> 00:04:04,539 has become the organizing principle of the human species. 48 00:04:04,560 --> 00:04:07,699 We are becoming this global network civilization 49 00:04:07,719 --> 00:04:10,539 because we are literally building it. 50 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,219 All of the world's defense budgets and military spending taken together 51 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:17,379 total just under two trillion dollars per year. 52 00:04:17,399 --> 00:04:19,779 Meanwhile, our global infrastructure spending 53 00:04:19,800 --> 00:04:23,180 is projected to rise to nine trillion dollars per year 54 00:04:23,199 --> 00:04:24,699 within the coming decade. 55 00:04:24,720 --> 00:04:26,420 And, well, it should. 56 00:04:26,439 --> 00:04:29,100 We have been living off an infrastructure stock 57 00:04:29,100 --> 00:04:32,600 meant for a world population of three billion, 58 00:04:32,620 --> 00:04:35,720 as our population has crossed seven billion to eight billion 59 00:04:35,740 --> 00:04:38,240 and eventually nine billion and more. 60 00:04:38,259 --> 00:04:39,800 As a rule of thumb, 61 00:04:39,819 --> 00:04:42,959 we should spend about one trillion dollars 62 00:04:42,980 --> 00:04:47,339 on the basic infrastructure needs of every billion people in the world. 63 00:04:48,339 --> 00:04:51,379 Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead. 64 00:04:52,300 --> 00:04:54,920 In 2015, China announced the creation 65 00:04:54,939 --> 00:04:58,839 of the Asia Infrastructure and Investment Bank, 66 00:04:58,839 --> 00:05:02,019 which, together with a network of other organizations, 67 00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:05,459 aims to construct a network of iron-silk roads 68 00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:07,720 stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon. 69 00:05:08,639 --> 00:05:12,759 And as all of this topographical engineering unfolds, 70 00:05:12,779 --> 00:05:18,259 we will likely spend more on infrastructure in the next 40 years. 71 00:05:18,279 --> 00:05:21,620 We will build more infrastructure in the next 40 years 72 00:05:21,639 --> 00:05:24,399 than we have in the past 4,000 years. 73 00:05:25,759 --> 00:05:28,540 Now, let's stop and think about it for a minute. 74 00:05:28,540 --> 00:05:33,360 Spending so much more on building the foundations of global society 75 00:05:33,379 --> 00:05:36,120 rather than on the tools to destroy it 76 00:05:36,139 --> 00:05:38,759 can have profound consequences. 77 00:05:38,779 --> 00:05:42,439 Connectivity is how we optimize the distribution of people 78 00:05:42,459 --> 00:05:44,439 and resources around the world. 79 00:05:44,459 --> 00:05:48,660 It is how mankind comes to be more than just the sum of its parts. 80 00:05:49,860 --> 00:05:52,500 I believe that is what is happening. 81 00:05:53,980 --> 00:05:57,899 Connectivity has a twin megatrend in the 21st century. 82 00:05:57,899 --> 00:05:59,980 Planetary urbanization. 83 00:06:00,980 --> 00:06:04,779 Cities are the infrastructures that most define us. 84 00:06:04,800 --> 00:06:09,279 By 2030, more than two-thirds of the world's population will live in cities. 85 00:06:09,300 --> 00:06:12,079 And these are not mere little dots on the map, 86 00:06:12,100 --> 00:06:16,339 but they are vast archipelagos stretching hundreds of kilometers. 87 00:06:16,360 --> 00:06:17,899 Here we are in Vancouver, 88 00:06:17,920 --> 00:06:19,839 at the head of the Cascadia Corridor 89 00:06:19,860 --> 00:06:22,759 that stretches south across the US border to Seattle. 90 00:06:23,600 --> 00:06:25,959 The technology powerhouse of Silicon Valley 91 00:06:25,959 --> 00:06:30,620 begins north of San Francisco, down to San Jose and across the Bay to Oakland. 92 00:06:30,639 --> 00:06:33,620 The sprawl of Los Angeles now passes San Diego 93 00:06:33,639 --> 00:06:35,939 across the Mexican border to Tijuana. 94 00:06:35,959 --> 00:06:38,899 San Diego and Tijuana now share an airport terminal, 95 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:41,100 where you can exit into either country. 96 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:45,439 Eventually, a high-speed rail network may connect the entire Pacific Spine. 97 00:06:46,680 --> 00:06:49,100 America's northeastern megalopolis 98 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,579 begins in Boston through New York and Philadelphia to Washington. 99 00:06:52,600 --> 00:06:54,779 It contains more than 50 million people 100 00:06:54,779 --> 00:06:57,600 and also has plans for a high-speed rail network. 101 00:06:57,620 --> 00:07:02,240 But Asia is where we really see the megacities coming together. 102 00:07:02,259 --> 00:07:06,519 This continuous strip of light from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka 103 00:07:06,540 --> 00:07:11,160 contains more than 80 million people and most of Japan's economy. 104 00:07:11,180 --> 00:07:14,120 It is the world's largest megacity. 105 00:07:14,139 --> 00:07:15,759 For now. 106 00:07:15,779 --> 00:07:18,279 But in China, megacity clusters are coming together 107 00:07:18,300 --> 00:07:21,279 with populations reaching 100 million people. 108 00:07:21,300 --> 00:07:23,160 The Bohai Rim around Beijing, 109 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:25,459 the Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai 110 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:27,379 and the Pearl River Delta, 111 00:07:27,399 --> 00:07:29,740 stretching from Hong Kong north to Guangzhou. 112 00:07:29,759 --> 00:07:31,060 And in the middle, 113 00:07:31,079 --> 00:07:34,019 the Chongqing-Changdu megacity cluster, 114 00:07:34,040 --> 00:07:36,819 whose geographic footprint is almost the same size 115 00:07:36,839 --> 00:07:38,680 as the country of Austria. 116 00:07:40,279 --> 00:07:42,220 And any number of these megacity clusters 117 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,259 has a GDP approaching two trillion dollars. 118 00:07:45,279 --> 00:07:48,560 That's almost the same as all of India today. 119 00:07:48,579 --> 00:07:52,579 So imagine if our global diplomatic institutions, 120 00:07:52,579 --> 00:07:54,160 such as the G20, 121 00:07:54,180 --> 00:07:57,759 were to base their membership on economic size 122 00:07:57,779 --> 00:08:00,279 rather than national representation. 123 00:08:00,300 --> 00:08:03,879 Some Chinese megacities may be in and have a seat at the table, 124 00:08:03,899 --> 00:08:09,079 while entire countries like Argentina or Indonesia would be out, 125 00:08:09,100 --> 00:08:10,279 moving to India, 126 00:08:10,300 --> 00:08:12,759 whose population will soon exceed that of China. 127 00:08:12,779 --> 00:08:15,120 It too has a number of megacity clusters, 128 00:08:15,139 --> 00:08:19,019 such as the Delhi capital region and Mumbai. 129 00:08:19,019 --> 00:08:23,399 In the Middle East, Greater Tehran is absorbing one third of Iran's population. 130 00:08:23,420 --> 00:08:25,279 Most of Egypt's 80 million people 131 00:08:25,300 --> 00:08:28,339 live in the corridor between Cairo and Alexandria. 132 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:29,920 And in the Gulf, 133 00:08:29,939 --> 00:08:32,360 a necklace of city-states is forming, 134 00:08:32,379 --> 00:08:33,840 from Bahrain and Qatar 135 00:08:33,860 --> 00:08:36,620 through the United Arab Emirates to Muscat in Oman. 136 00:08:37,539 --> 00:08:39,779 And then there's Lagos, 137 00:08:39,799 --> 00:08:43,659 Africa's largest city and Nigeria's commercial hub. 138 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:45,759 It has plans for a rail network 139 00:08:45,759 --> 00:08:50,139 that will make it the anchor of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor 140 00:08:50,159 --> 00:08:53,220 stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana 141 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:56,700 to Abidjan, the capital of the Ivory Coast. 142 00:08:56,720 --> 00:09:00,980 But these countries are suburbs of Lagos. 143 00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:07,620 In a megacity world, countries can be suburbs of cities. 144 00:09:07,639 --> 00:09:14,379 By 2030, we will have as many as 50 such megacity clusters in the world. 145 00:09:14,399 --> 00:09:16,259 So which map tells you more? 146 00:09:16,259 --> 00:09:19,399 our traditional map of 200 discrete nations 147 00:09:19,419 --> 00:09:21,299 that hang on most of our walls, 148 00:09:21,320 --> 00:09:24,399 or this map of the 50 megacity clusters. 149 00:09:25,159 --> 00:09:27,919 And yet even this is incomplete, 150 00:09:27,940 --> 00:09:31,919 because you cannot understand any individual megacity 151 00:09:31,940 --> 00:09:34,940 without understanding its connections to the others. 152 00:09:35,899 --> 00:09:38,240 People move to cities to be connected, 153 00:09:38,259 --> 00:09:41,500 and connectivity is why these cities thrive. 154 00:09:42,340 --> 00:09:46,000 Any number of them, such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow, 155 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:50,059 has a GDP approaching or exceeding one-third to one-half 156 00:09:50,080 --> 00:09:52,320 of their entire national GDP. 157 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:54,860 But equally importantly, 158 00:09:54,879 --> 00:09:57,740 you cannot calculate any of their individual value 159 00:09:57,759 --> 00:10:01,419 without understanding the role of the flows of people, 160 00:10:01,440 --> 00:10:03,179 of finance, of technology, 161 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:04,879 that enable them to thrive. 162 00:10:05,639 --> 00:10:08,340 Take the Gauteng province of South Africa, 163 00:10:08,360 --> 00:10:11,519 which contains Johannesburg and the capital Pretoria. 164 00:10:11,539 --> 00:10:15,480 It too represents just over a third of South Africa's GDP. 165 00:10:15,480 --> 00:10:17,259 But equally importantly, 166 00:10:17,279 --> 00:10:21,740 it is home to the offices of almost every single multinational corporation 167 00:10:21,759 --> 00:10:23,980 that invests directly into South Africa 168 00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:26,600 and indeed into the entire African continent. 169 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:31,379 Cities want to be part of global value chains. 170 00:10:31,399 --> 00:10:34,940 They want to be part of this global division of labor. 171 00:10:34,960 --> 00:10:36,879 That is how cities think. 172 00:10:37,639 --> 00:10:39,419 I've never met a mayor who said to me, 173 00:10:39,440 --> 00:10:41,240 I want my city to be cut off. 174 00:10:41,240 --> 00:10:47,379 They know that their cities belong as much to the global network civilization 175 00:10:47,379 --> 00:10:49,399 as to their home countries. 176 00:10:51,700 --> 00:10:55,120 Now, for many people, urbanization causes great dismay. 177 00:10:55,919 --> 00:10:57,919 They think cities are wrecking the planet. 178 00:10:58,840 --> 00:11:03,879 But right now, there are more than 200 intercity learning networks thriving. 179 00:11:04,419 --> 00:11:08,419 That is, as many as the number of intergovernmental organizations that we have. 180 00:11:08,419 --> 00:11:12,940 And all of these intercity networks are devoted to one purpose, 181 00:11:13,580 --> 00:11:17,440 mankind's number one priority in the 21st century, 182 00:11:18,259 --> 00:11:20,059 sustainable urbanization. 183 00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:22,279 Is it working? 184 00:11:23,399 --> 00:11:24,700 Let's take climate change. 185 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,039 We know that summit after summit in New York and Paris 186 00:11:28,039 --> 00:11:30,559 is not going to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 187 00:11:31,379 --> 00:11:35,399 But what we can see is that transferring technology and knowledge 188 00:11:35,399 --> 00:11:37,220 and policies between cities 189 00:11:37,220 --> 00:11:41,360 is how we've actually begun to reduce the carbon intensity of our economies. 190 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:43,840 Cities are learning from each other 191 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:46,340 how to install zero-emissions buildings, 192 00:11:46,759 --> 00:11:49,299 how to deploy electric car-sharing systems. 193 00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:51,080 In major Chinese cities, 194 00:11:51,179 --> 00:11:53,600 they're imposing quotas on the number of cars on the streets. 195 00:11:54,279 --> 00:11:55,460 In many Western cities, 196 00:11:55,620 --> 00:11:57,559 young people don't even want to drive anymore. 197 00:11:58,860 --> 00:12:00,259 Cities have been part of the problem. 198 00:12:01,000 --> 00:12:02,720 Now they are part of the solution. 199 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:08,279 Inequality is the other great challenge to achieving sustainable urbanization. 200 00:12:08,779 --> 00:12:11,659 When I travel through megacities from end to end, 201 00:12:12,340 --> 00:12:13,740 it takes hours and days, 202 00:12:14,480 --> 00:12:20,080 I experience the tragedy of extreme disparity within the same geography. 203 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:25,220 And yet our global stock of financial assets has never been larger, 204 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:28,679 approaching 300 trillion dollars. 205 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:32,299 That's almost four times the actual GDP of the world. 206 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:37,539 We have taken on such enormous debts since the financial crisis, 207 00:12:37,860 --> 00:12:40,960 but have we invested them in inclusive growth? 208 00:12:41,860 --> 00:12:43,600 No, not yet. 209 00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:48,259 Only when we build sufficient, affordable public housing, 210 00:12:48,639 --> 00:12:51,419 when we invest in robust transportation networks 211 00:12:51,419 --> 00:12:53,919 to allow people to connect to each other, 212 00:12:54,100 --> 00:12:55,659 both physically and digitally, 213 00:12:56,200 --> 00:12:58,580 that's when our divided cities and societies 214 00:12:58,580 --> 00:13:00,259 will come to feel whole again. 215 00:13:04,950 --> 00:13:07,730 And that is why infrastructure has just been included 216 00:13:07,730 --> 00:13:10,009 in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, 217 00:13:10,129 --> 00:13:12,149 because it enables all the others. 218 00:13:13,049 --> 00:13:15,370 Our political and economic leaders are learning 219 00:13:15,370 --> 00:13:18,870 that connectivity is not charity, it's opportunity. 220 00:13:19,889 --> 00:13:22,750 And that's why our financial community needs to understand 221 00:13:22,750 --> 00:13:27,450 that connectivity is the most important asset class of the 21st century. 222 00:13:29,029 --> 00:13:32,610 Now, cities can make the world more sustainable. 223 00:13:33,610 --> 00:13:35,129 They can make the world more equitable. 224 00:13:35,889 --> 00:13:38,610 I also believe that connectivity between cities 225 00:13:38,610 --> 00:13:40,169 can make the world more peaceful. 226 00:13:41,250 --> 00:13:44,870 If we look at regions of the world with dense relations across borders, 227 00:13:45,230 --> 00:13:49,029 we see more trade, more investment and more stability. 228 00:13:49,529 --> 00:13:51,809 We all know the story of Europe after World War II, 229 00:13:52,210 --> 00:13:54,769 where industrial integration kicked off a process 230 00:13:54,769 --> 00:13:57,190 that gave rise to today's peaceful European Union. 231 00:13:57,889 --> 00:14:00,149 And you can see that Russia, by the way, 232 00:14:00,149 --> 00:14:04,509 is the least connected of major powers in the international system. 233 00:14:05,250 --> 00:14:08,429 And that goes a long way towards explaining the tensions today. 234 00:14:09,129 --> 00:14:11,450 Countries that have less stake in the system 235 00:14:11,450 --> 00:14:14,129 also have less to lose in disturbing it. 236 00:14:15,509 --> 00:14:18,649 In North America, the lines that matter most on the map 237 00:14:18,649 --> 00:14:22,009 are not the U.S.-Canada border or the U.S.-Mexico border, 238 00:14:22,009 --> 00:14:25,490 but the dense network of roads and railways and pipelines 239 00:14:25,490 --> 00:14:28,289 and electricity grids and even water canals 240 00:14:28,289 --> 00:14:31,970 that are forming an integrated North American union. 241 00:14:32,629 --> 00:14:35,090 North America does not need more walls. 242 00:14:35,750 --> 00:14:36,870 It needs more connections. 243 00:14:38,289 --> 00:14:49,059 But the real promise of connectivity is in the post-colonial world. 244 00:14:49,279 --> 00:14:52,820 All of those regions where borders have historically been the most arbitrary 245 00:14:52,820 --> 00:14:57,559 and where generations of leaders have had hostile relations with each other. 246 00:14:57,779 --> 00:15:02,019 But now a new group of leaders has come into power and is burying the hatchet. 247 00:15:02,600 --> 00:15:03,980 Let's take Southeast Asia. 248 00:15:04,399 --> 00:15:07,879 where high-speed rail networks are planned to connect Bangkok to Singapore 249 00:15:07,879 --> 00:15:10,419 and trade corridors from Vietnam to Myanmar. 250 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:14,159 Now this region of 600 million people 251 00:15:14,159 --> 00:15:18,039 coordinates its agricultural resources and its industrial output. 252 00:15:18,639 --> 00:15:22,899 It is evolving into what I call a Pax Asiana, 253 00:15:23,440 --> 00:15:26,039 a peace among Southeast Asian nations. 254 00:15:26,940 --> 00:15:29,700 A similar phenomenon is underway in East Africa, 255 00:15:29,700 --> 00:15:32,039 where a half-dozen countries are investing 256 00:15:32,039 --> 00:15:34,840 in railways and multimodal corridors 257 00:15:34,840 --> 00:15:37,539 so that landlocked countries can get their goods to market. 258 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,100 Now these countries coordinate their utilities 259 00:15:40,100 --> 00:15:42,080 and their investment policies. 260 00:15:42,799 --> 00:15:46,279 They too are evolving into a Pax Africana. 261 00:15:47,919 --> 00:15:50,960 One region we know could especially use this kind of thinking 262 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:51,820 is the Middle East. 263 00:15:52,919 --> 00:15:54,960 As Arab states tragically collapse, 264 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:58,139 what is left behind but the ancient cities 265 00:15:58,139 --> 00:16:00,580 such as Cairo, Beirut and Baghdad? 266 00:16:01,519 --> 00:16:05,980 In fact, the nearly 400 million people of the Arab world 267 00:16:05,980 --> 00:16:07,799 are almost entirely urbanized. 268 00:16:08,279 --> 00:16:09,720 As societies, as cities, 269 00:16:10,259 --> 00:16:12,240 they are either water-rich or water-poor, 270 00:16:12,480 --> 00:16:14,080 energy-rich or energy-poor. 271 00:16:15,039 --> 00:16:17,440 And the only way to correct these mismatches 272 00:16:17,440 --> 00:16:19,879 is not through more wars and more borders, 273 00:16:20,559 --> 00:16:24,059 but through more connectivity of pipelines and water canals. 274 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:28,580 Sadly, this is not yet the map of the Middle East. 275 00:16:28,580 --> 00:16:29,840 But it should be. 276 00:16:30,580 --> 00:16:34,500 a connected Pax Arabia, 277 00:16:35,659 --> 00:16:39,559 internally integrated and productively connected to its neighbors, 278 00:16:39,740 --> 00:16:41,100 Europe, Asia and Africa. 279 00:16:41,659 --> 00:16:44,840 Now, it may not seem that connectivity is what we want right now 280 00:16:44,840 --> 00:16:46,500 towards the world's most turbulent region. 281 00:16:47,340 --> 00:16:50,259 But we know from history that more connectivity 282 00:16:50,259 --> 00:16:53,080 is the only way to bring about stability in the long run. 283 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:56,139 Because we know that in region after region, 284 00:16:56,539 --> 00:16:59,039 connectivity is the new reality. 285 00:16:59,559 --> 00:17:01,960 Cities and countries are learning to aggregate 286 00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,720 into more peaceful and prosperous wholes. 287 00:17:06,400 --> 00:17:08,920 But the real test is going to be Asia. 288 00:17:10,019 --> 00:17:12,940 Can connectivity overcome the patterns of rivalry 289 00:17:12,940 --> 00:17:14,880 among the great powers of the Far East? 290 00:17:15,559 --> 00:17:19,680 After all, this is where World War III is supposed to break out. 291 00:17:20,819 --> 00:17:24,079 Since the end of the Cold War, a quarter century ago, 292 00:17:24,079 --> 00:17:26,960 at least six major wars have been predicted for this region. 293 00:17:27,380 --> 00:17:28,960 But none have broken out. 294 00:17:30,039 --> 00:17:31,440 Take China and Taiwan. 295 00:17:32,519 --> 00:17:36,460 In the 1990s, this was everyone's leading World War III scenario. 296 00:17:37,079 --> 00:17:38,299 But since that time, 297 00:17:38,759 --> 00:17:41,319 the trade and investment volumes across the straits 298 00:17:41,319 --> 00:17:42,839 have become so intense 299 00:17:42,839 --> 00:17:45,539 that last November, leaders from both sides 300 00:17:45,539 --> 00:17:46,980 held a historic summit 301 00:17:46,980 --> 00:17:50,000 to discuss eventual peaceful reunification. 302 00:17:50,859 --> 00:17:53,779 And even the election of a nationalist party in Taiwan 303 00:17:53,779 --> 00:17:56,119 that's pro-independence earlier this year 304 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:58,880 does not undermine this fundamental dynamic. 305 00:17:59,039 --> 00:18:03,000 China and Japan have an even longer history of rivalry 306 00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,400 and have been deploying their air forces and navies 307 00:18:05,400 --> 00:18:07,700 to show their strength in island disputes. 308 00:18:08,480 --> 00:18:09,460 But in recent years, 309 00:18:09,839 --> 00:18:13,259 Japan has been making its largest foreign investments in China. 310 00:18:14,039 --> 00:18:16,460 Japanese cars are selling in record numbers there. 311 00:18:17,460 --> 00:18:19,900 And guess where the largest number of foreigners 312 00:18:19,900 --> 00:18:22,400 residing in Japan today comes from? 313 00:18:23,140 --> 00:18:23,819 You guessed it. 314 00:18:24,359 --> 00:18:24,680 China. 315 00:18:26,319 --> 00:18:28,279 China and India have fought a major war 316 00:18:28,279 --> 00:18:30,380 and have three outstanding border disputes. 317 00:18:30,400 --> 00:18:33,019 But today, India is the second-largest shareholder 318 00:18:33,039 --> 00:18:35,420 in the Asia Infrastructure and Investment Bank. 319 00:18:35,440 --> 00:18:38,740 They're building a trade corridor stretching from northeast India 320 00:18:38,759 --> 00:18:41,019 through Myanmar and Bangladesh 321 00:18:41,039 --> 00:18:42,759 to southern China. 322 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:47,160 Their trade volume has grown from 20 billion dollars a decade ago 323 00:18:47,180 --> 00:18:48,920 to 80 billion dollars today. 324 00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:52,619 Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan have fought three wars 325 00:18:52,640 --> 00:18:54,859 and continue to dispute Kashmir. 326 00:18:54,880 --> 00:18:58,259 But they're also negotiating a most favored nation trade agreement 327 00:18:58,279 --> 00:19:03,619 and want to complete a pipeline stretching from Iran through Pakistan to India. 328 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:05,460 And let's talk about Iran. 329 00:19:06,900 --> 00:19:09,599 Wasn't it just two years ago that war with Iran seemed inevitable? 330 00:19:10,759 --> 00:19:15,220 Then why is every single major power rushing to do business there today? 331 00:19:17,559 --> 00:19:22,599 Ladies and gentlemen, I cannot guarantee that World War III will not break out. 332 00:19:23,259 --> 00:19:26,359 But we can definitely see why it hasn't happened yet. 333 00:19:27,339 --> 00:19:30,940 Even though Asia is home to the world's fastest-growing militaries, 334 00:19:31,440 --> 00:19:34,839 these same countries are also investing billions of dollars 335 00:19:34,839 --> 00:19:37,539 in each other's infrastructure and supply chains. 336 00:19:37,940 --> 00:19:41,299 They are more interested in each other's functional geography 337 00:19:41,299 --> 00:19:43,660 than in their political geography. 338 00:19:44,119 --> 00:19:47,000 And that is why their leaders think twice, 339 00:19:47,740 --> 00:19:48,900 step back from the brink, 340 00:19:48,900 --> 00:19:53,599 and decide to focus on economic ties over territorial tensions. 341 00:19:53,599 --> 00:19:56,740 So often, it seems like the world is falling apart, 342 00:19:56,759 --> 00:19:59,099 but building more connectivity 343 00:19:59,119 --> 00:20:02,579 is how we put Humpty Dumpty back together again, 344 00:20:02,599 --> 00:20:04,579 much better than before. 345 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:09,700 And by wrapping the world in such seamless physical and digital connectivity, 346 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,079 we evolve towards a world 347 00:20:12,099 --> 00:20:15,900 in which people can rise above their geographic constraints. 348 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:21,859 We are the cells and vessels pulsing through these global connectivity networks. 349 00:20:21,859 --> 00:20:24,359 through these global connectivity networks. 350 00:20:24,380 --> 00:20:28,000 Every day, hundreds of millions of people go online 351 00:20:28,019 --> 00:20:30,720 and work with people they've never met. 352 00:20:30,740 --> 00:20:34,160 More than one billion people cross borders every year, 353 00:20:34,180 --> 00:20:38,099 and that's expected to rise to three billion in the coming decade. 354 00:20:39,220 --> 00:20:41,680 We don't just build connectivity, 355 00:20:41,700 --> 00:20:43,059 we embody it. 356 00:20:43,980 --> 00:20:47,299 We are the global network civilization, 357 00:20:47,319 --> 00:20:49,180 and this is our map. 358 00:20:49,180 --> 00:20:54,220 A map of the world in which geography is no longer destiny. 359 00:20:55,299 --> 00:20:59,380 Instead, the future has a new and more hopeful motto. 360 00:21:00,319 --> 00:21:02,220 Connectivity is destiny. 361 00:21:03,019 --> 00:21:03,480 Thank you. 362 00:21:11,799 --> 00:21:15,240 The United Nations is an organization with goals of peace 363 00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:17,960 and sustainable development around the world. 364 00:21:18,619 --> 00:21:22,259 Their mission is huge, but we're breaking it down in two minutes. 365 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,079 70 sustainable development goals. 366 00:21:25,079 --> 00:21:27,579 Let's get to them cause the more you know 367 00:21:27,579 --> 00:21:30,140 Look, in some corners of the world today 368 00:21:30,140 --> 00:21:32,859 People are living on a dollar a day 369 00:21:32,859 --> 00:21:35,420 Ay, that's not how it ought to be 370 00:21:35,420 --> 00:21:37,880 So goal one, eliminate poverty 371 00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:41,039 And goal two, root out hunger across the globe 372 00:21:41,039 --> 00:21:43,799 There's 800 million people hungry if you wanna know 373 00:21:43,799 --> 00:21:46,279 Number three is health and well-being 374 00:21:46,279 --> 00:21:49,000 And getting people the healthcare that they need in 375 00:21:49,000 --> 00:21:51,500 Learning in school are the heart of goal four 376 00:21:51,500 --> 00:21:54,079 Education opens up minds and doors 377 00:21:54,079 --> 00:21:56,900 Goal number five is empower girls and women 378 00:21:56,900 --> 00:21:59,440 So they can have the same rights that men are given 379 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:02,160 Number six, people need water that's clean 380 00:22:02,160 --> 00:22:04,720 Poor sanitation can spread disease 381 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,339 Carbon-free energy is goal number seven 382 00:22:07,339 --> 00:22:10,119 And how to achieve it is a question that's pressing 383 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:13,200 But if we put our minds together and work hard 384 00:22:13,200 --> 00:22:15,339 We can find a solution, I'm guessing 385 00:22:15,339 --> 00:22:17,880 17 sustainable development goals 386 00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:20,559 To improve life all around the globe 387 00:22:20,559 --> 00:22:23,200 Protecting human health and the environment 388 00:22:23,200 --> 00:22:26,019 Whatever bad we make, we gon' have to lie in it 389 00:22:26,019 --> 00:22:28,420 17 sustainable development goals 390 00:22:28,420 --> 00:22:31,099 To improve life all around the globe 391 00:22:31,099 --> 00:22:33,759 Protecting human health and the environment 392 00:22:33,759 --> 00:22:36,380 Whatever bad we make, we gon' have to lie in it 393 00:22:36,380 --> 00:22:38,940 Now imagine that you work all day for no pay 394 00:22:38,940 --> 00:22:41,559 Economic growth and decent workers, goal 8 395 00:22:41,559 --> 00:22:44,279 Goal number 9 is to foster innovation 396 00:22:44,279 --> 00:22:46,920 In infrastructure and industrialization 397 00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,539 Goal number 10, inequality reduction 398 00:22:49,539 --> 00:22:52,180 11 is sustainable city construction 399 00:22:52,180 --> 00:22:54,839 12, well, that's sustainable consumption 400 00:22:54,839 --> 00:22:57,539 So what we use matches up with production 401 00:22:57,539 --> 00:23:00,259 Goal 13 calls for urgent action 402 00:23:00,259 --> 00:23:01,720 To combat climate change 403 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:02,819 Cause we know it's happening 404 00:23:02,819 --> 00:23:05,400 14, protect life under seas 405 00:23:05,400 --> 00:23:07,880 15, protect life on land 406 00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:10,660 Goal 16 is for peace and justice 407 00:23:10,660 --> 00:23:13,140 All over the planet, they're in high demand 408 00:23:13,140 --> 00:23:15,779 And the final goal, number 17 409 00:23:15,779 --> 00:23:18,440 Is the critical factor, the heart of the machine 410 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:21,079 It's the strength in the way we achieve these goals 411 00:23:21,079 --> 00:23:27,759 of sustainable development around the globe. 17 sustainable development goals to improve life 412 00:23:27,759 --> 00:23:33,160 all around the globe. Protecting human health and the environment. Whatever bad we make, 413 00:23:33,220 --> 00:23:38,980 we gonna have to lie in it. 17 sustainable development goals to improve life all around 414 00:23:38,980 --> 00:23:44,180 the globe. Protecting human health and the environment. Whatever bad we make, we gonna 415 00:23:44,180 --> 00:24:10,059 Today, more than half of all people in the world live in an urban area. 416 00:24:10,539 --> 00:24:13,480 By mid-century, this will increase to 70%. 417 00:24:13,480 --> 00:24:20,220 But as recently as 100 years ago, only 2 out of 10 people lived in a city, and before that, it was even less. 418 00:24:21,059 --> 00:24:25,539 How have we reached such a high degree of urbanization, and what does it mean for our future? 419 00:24:25,539 --> 00:24:30,079 In the earliest days of human history, humans were hunter-gatherers, 420 00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,859 often moving from place to place in search of food. 421 00:24:34,319 --> 00:24:39,119 But about 10,000 years ago, our ancestors began to learn the secrets of selective breeding 422 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:41,180 and early agricultural techniques. 423 00:24:42,039 --> 00:24:45,700 For the first time, people could raise food rather than search for it, 424 00:24:46,019 --> 00:24:50,220 and this led to the development of semi-permanent villages for the first time in history. 425 00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,240 Why only semi-permanent, you might ask? 426 00:24:53,240 --> 00:24:58,519 well, at first the villages still had to relocate every few years as the soil became depleted. 427 00:24:59,819 --> 00:25:05,059 It was only with the advent of techniques like irrigation and soil tilling about 5,000 years ago 428 00:25:05,059 --> 00:25:10,000 that people could rely on a steady and long-term supply of food, making permanent settlements 429 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:15,400 possible. And with the food surpluses that these techniques produced, it was no longer necessary 430 00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:20,680 for everyone to farm. This allowed the development of other specialized trades, and by extension, 431 00:25:20,680 --> 00:25:27,420 cities. With cities now producing surplus food as well as tools, crafts, and other goods, 432 00:25:27,779 --> 00:25:31,859 there was now the possibility of commerce and interaction over longer distances. 433 00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:39,119 And as trade flourished, so did technologies that facilitated it, like carts, ships, 434 00:25:40,299 --> 00:25:45,720 roads, and ports. Of course, these things required even more labor to build and maintain, 435 00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:50,579 so more people were drawn from the countryside to the cities as more jobs and opportunities 436 00:25:50,579 --> 00:25:55,880 became available. If you think modern cities are overcrowded, you may be surprised to learn that 437 00:25:55,880 --> 00:26:01,619 some cities in 2000 BC had population densities nearly twice as high as that of Shanghai or 438 00:26:01,619 --> 00:26:06,420 Calcutta. One reason for this was that transportation was not widely available, 439 00:26:06,900 --> 00:26:11,720 so everything had to be within walking distance, including the few sources of clean water that 440 00:26:11,720 --> 00:26:17,299 existed then. And the land area of the city was further restricted by the need for walls to defend 441 00:26:17,299 --> 00:26:23,200 against attacks. The Roman Empire was able to develop infrastructure to overcome these 442 00:26:23,200 --> 00:26:28,220 limitations, but other than that, modern cities as we know them didn't really get their start 443 00:26:28,220 --> 00:26:33,380 until the Industrial Revolution, when new technology deployed on a mass scale allowed 444 00:26:33,380 --> 00:26:38,240 cities to expand and integrate further, establishing police, fire, and sanitation 445 00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:44,599 departments as well as road networks and later electricity distribution. So what is the future 446 00:26:44,599 --> 00:26:50,599 of cities global population is currently more than 7 billion and is predicted to top out around 10 447 00:26:50,599 --> 00:26:55,720 billion most of this growth will occur in the urban areas of the world's poorest countries 448 00:26:56,359 --> 00:27:02,200 so how will cities need to change to accommodate this growth first the world will need to seek 449 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:08,599 ways to provide adequate food sanitation and education for all people second growth will need 450 00:27:08,599 --> 00:27:13,240 to happen in a way that does not damage the land that provides us with the goods and services that 451 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,579 support the human population. 452 00:27:16,579 --> 00:27:21,759 Food production might move to vertical farms and skyscrapers, rooftop gardens, or vacant 453 00:27:21,759 --> 00:27:28,339 lots and city centers, while power will increasingly come from multiple sources of renewable energy. 454 00:27:28,339 --> 00:27:32,000 Instead of single-family homes, more residences will be built vertically. 455 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:36,759 We may see buildings that contain everything that people need for their daily life, as 456 00:27:36,759 --> 00:27:41,980 well as smaller, self-sufficient cities focused on local and sustainable production. 457 00:27:41,980 --> 00:27:47,319 The future of cities is diverse, malleable and creative, no longer built around a single 458 00:27:47,319 --> 00:27:51,700 industry, but reflecting an increasingly connected and global world.