1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:04,240 Good morning, evening, afternoon, night, whenever you're watching this, geographers, 2 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:08,820 welcome to the Mr. Sin channel. Today's a big day. We're going to be talking about Unit 2, 3 00:00:08,919 --> 00:00:12,179 Topic 5. We're going to be going into the Demographic Transition Model, 4 00:00:12,300 --> 00:00:16,120 and at the end of this video, we're going to be talking about the Epidemiological Transition 5 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:21,480 Model. These models are really important, not just for this unit, but for the rest of the class. 6 00:00:21,559 --> 00:00:25,960 Now, before we dive into these really important concepts, I want to mention my Ultimate Review 7 00:00:25,960 --> 00:00:31,000 packet. I get emails all the time from students asking how they can study better for AP Human 8 00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:36,679 Geography. And my Ultimate Review Packet is a great tool for you to use. It comes with videos 9 00:00:36,679 --> 00:00:41,179 that'll talk about how to do better on FRQ tests, how to do better on multiple choice, how to study, 10 00:00:41,460 --> 00:00:46,020 how to look at some of the themes. It also has summary videos for all of the different units in 11 00:00:46,020 --> 00:00:50,740 this class, along with practice quizzes, study guides, answer keys, and two full practice AP 12 00:00:50,740 --> 00:00:54,619 tests. And that's just getting started with it. So if you're interested in that, check it out. 13 00:00:54,619 --> 00:01:00,420 The link is in the description below now the demographic transition model is broken into different stages each stage looks at different 14 00:01:00,460 --> 00:01:06,780 Economic and social developments that happen in a society now the first stage of the model is actually where the majority of human history has 15 00:01:06,780 --> 00:01:09,739 Happened so far it's defined by low growth 16 00:01:09,819 --> 00:01:15,519 We can actually see that our births here are really high remember back to our last video where we were talking about 17 00:01:15,739 --> 00:01:22,939 CDR CBR and I are all those concepts come back in this model and we can see that our births are high and our deaths 18 00:01:22,939 --> 00:01:28,400 are also high. Notice too, when we're looking at the model, they actually are essentially the same. 19 00:01:28,780 --> 00:01:34,500 So our growth rate then is actually pretty low, hence low growth. It's being canceled out. And 20 00:01:34,500 --> 00:01:38,340 the reason why so many people are dying is we don't have medicine yet. People are dying to 21 00:01:38,340 --> 00:01:42,739 animal attacks, diseases, you name it, it's killing people. Quite frankly, it's a pretty 22 00:01:42,739 --> 00:01:46,099 depressing time to be alive. Now, I do want to stress that all countries today have actually 23 00:01:46,099 --> 00:01:51,780 moved on from stage one. There are no countries anymore that are in stage one. Now, an example of 24 00:01:51,780 --> 00:01:56,959 Modern-day society not a country that is in stage one would be the sentinese people 25 00:01:56,959 --> 00:02:02,180 They're actually living on an island off the coast of india. They have no connection to the outside world in fact 26 00:02:02,180 --> 00:02:04,040 It's actually legal to go visit them 27 00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:10,620 Because they've been isolated for so long that the diseases we have would end up killing the population now countries move from stage one to 28 00:02:10,620 --> 00:02:14,759 Stage two when either the industrial revolution happens or the medical revolution 29 00:02:15,120 --> 00:02:20,460 Regions like europe and north america were the first to experience stage two thanks to the industrial revolution 30 00:02:20,460 --> 00:02:25,360 Followed by Africa, Asia, and Latin America, thanks to the medical revolution. 31 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:27,719 Now stage two is defined by high growth. 32 00:02:27,719 --> 00:02:31,300 When countries enter stage two, they keep their high birth rate. 33 00:02:31,300 --> 00:02:35,680 We see that they're still having a lot of babies, that's similar to stage one. 34 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:40,759 However though, their CDR, their crude death rate, is going down now. 35 00:02:40,759 --> 00:02:44,180 The reason why is because of the advancements made in the industrial 36 00:02:44,180 --> 00:02:47,939 revolution with now food surplus, more efficient production, and 37 00:02:47,939 --> 00:02:53,039 also the medical revolution where now people are living longer and our infant mortality rate is 38 00:02:53,039 --> 00:02:58,139 decreasing. So our births are high and our deaths are now decreasing. And this leads to a population 39 00:02:58,139 --> 00:03:04,240 boom. You can see that we have a gap. Our births are a lot higher now than our deaths. This leads 40 00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:09,719 to our population to start taking off. This is when like Thomas Malthus, for example, looked at 41 00:03:09,719 --> 00:03:14,280 what was happening and said, hey, we're going to have a big issue here. He believed that this would 42 00:03:14,280 --> 00:03:19,180 just continue. And the demographic transition model actually shows us that no, he was wrong. 43 00:03:19,419 --> 00:03:23,719 At the time, he was in stage two and he didn't see what was going to happen next. Today, we could 44 00:03:23,719 --> 00:03:28,180 look at Afghanistan as a great example of actually being a stage two country. Now, eventually, we 45 00:03:28,180 --> 00:03:33,400 start to see society change. We start to see more urbanization. We start to see people realize, hey, 46 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:38,479 stage two people, we're having a lot of births and everyone's living. Our kids aren't dying anymore. 47 00:03:38,900 --> 00:03:42,680 All of a sudden, now we have some pretty big families. And so we start to see a culture shift. 48 00:03:42,680 --> 00:03:45,379 And that's when countries started to enter stage three. 49 00:03:45,900 --> 00:03:48,979 For stage three, what we're looking at here is moderate growth. 50 00:03:49,340 --> 00:03:52,479 In stage three, women start gaining more opportunities in society. 51 00:03:52,800 --> 00:03:53,840 Women are going to school. 52 00:03:54,000 --> 00:03:55,740 They're pursuing jobs, careers. 53 00:03:56,060 --> 00:03:59,300 And this reduces the amount of time that they have to have families. 54 00:03:59,639 --> 00:04:05,000 So our TFR, remember, total fertility rate from the last video, starts to decrease now. 55 00:04:05,219 --> 00:04:06,939 Now our family sizes are going down. 56 00:04:07,240 --> 00:04:11,919 That with more urbanization, which means the advantages of having large families go away, 57 00:04:11,919 --> 00:04:13,780 continue to push that down. 58 00:04:13,780 --> 00:04:16,500 So we can see that our births now and deaths 59 00:04:16,500 --> 00:04:17,800 are getting closer. 60 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,860 We still have a positive NIR where we're growing 61 00:04:20,860 --> 00:04:23,160 as a society, but the growth has slowed 62 00:04:23,160 --> 00:04:25,759 as now we're becoming more economically developed, 63 00:04:25,759 --> 00:04:28,360 but we're also seeing a lot more social opportunities 64 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:31,360 for everyone in society, reducing the amount of time 65 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:32,920 they have for large families. 66 00:04:32,920 --> 00:04:35,579 Mexico today would be a great example of a country 67 00:04:35,579 --> 00:04:38,139 that has now moved from stage two to stage three 68 00:04:38,139 --> 00:04:40,240 as their population growth starts to slow 69 00:04:40,240 --> 00:04:42,180 and they're gaining more medical advancements, 70 00:04:42,180 --> 00:04:44,120 which are allowing people to live longer, 71 00:04:44,120 --> 00:04:46,620 and we're also seeing more opportunities for citizens, 72 00:04:46,620 --> 00:04:47,759 which are making it so we're starting 73 00:04:47,759 --> 00:04:49,360 to see less large families. 74 00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:52,000 Now, as countries continue to develop and urbanize, 75 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,459 and they continue to eliminate gender inequality, 76 00:04:54,459 --> 00:04:57,000 we start to see them transition into stage four. 77 00:04:57,000 --> 00:04:59,699 Here's now where our birth rate and our death rate, 78 00:04:59,699 --> 00:05:02,800 our CBR and CDR, are essentially the same again. 79 00:05:02,800 --> 00:05:05,540 And this is when a country experiences ZPG. 80 00:05:05,540 --> 00:05:07,560 This is zero population growth. 81 00:05:07,560 --> 00:05:09,759 Essentially, we've stabilized now. 82 00:05:09,759 --> 00:05:12,399 Our NIR is no longer really growing. 83 00:05:12,399 --> 00:05:14,579 We're keeping at our status quo. 84 00:05:14,579 --> 00:05:17,000 So our population is staying the same here. 85 00:05:17,000 --> 00:05:19,839 Now women have lots of opportunities in society. 86 00:05:19,839 --> 00:05:22,300 People are now pursuing higher education. 87 00:05:22,300 --> 00:05:23,879 And after they graduate college, 88 00:05:23,879 --> 00:05:25,279 they might get a master's degree. 89 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:26,800 And from there, a doctorate. 90 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:28,100 And then they have their careers. 91 00:05:28,100 --> 00:05:30,560 So the amount of time people have for kids 92 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:32,199 is significantly reduced. 93 00:05:32,199 --> 00:05:35,120 We start to see the average time that people get married 94 00:05:35,120 --> 00:05:36,480 also get pushed back, 95 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:38,560 as now there's other things in life that they're doing. 96 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:39,560 And on top of all that, 97 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:41,740 we continue to see more advancements in medicine, 98 00:05:41,740 --> 00:05:44,399 which are allowing people to live longer and longer, 99 00:05:44,399 --> 00:05:46,819 which again is going to reduce that family size 100 00:05:46,819 --> 00:05:49,319 because that IMR, our infant mortality rate, 101 00:05:49,319 --> 00:05:50,879 keeps going down. 102 00:05:50,879 --> 00:05:52,819 Today we can look at the United States and China 103 00:05:52,819 --> 00:05:55,199 as great examples of a stage four country. 104 00:05:55,199 --> 00:05:56,620 Now the fifth stage is one 105 00:05:56,620 --> 00:05:58,120 that was not originally in the model, 106 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,620 and some people actually put the fifth stage with the fourth, 107 00:06:00,620 --> 00:06:03,180 but this stage is defined by negative growth. 108 00:06:03,180 --> 00:06:04,639 Essentially what's happening now 109 00:06:04,639 --> 00:06:06,540 is society has become so developed 110 00:06:06,540 --> 00:06:08,540 and the culture has shifted so much 111 00:06:08,540 --> 00:06:10,720 that people's family size is now below 112 00:06:10,720 --> 00:06:14,500 that replacement rate, that average TFR of 2.1. 113 00:06:14,500 --> 00:06:16,199 So we're now seeing that our births 114 00:06:16,199 --> 00:06:18,300 are lower than our death rate. 115 00:06:18,300 --> 00:06:22,120 So society now is starting to decrease in population size. 116 00:06:22,120 --> 00:06:24,019 Now there could be other factors as well. 117 00:06:24,019 --> 00:06:25,459 There's a variety of different reasons 118 00:06:25,459 --> 00:06:26,600 why this might happen. 119 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:28,680 It could be that family sizes are small 120 00:06:28,680 --> 00:06:31,459 because of cultural preferences, because of the government, 121 00:06:31,459 --> 00:06:34,139 because of urbanization and economic factors, 122 00:06:34,139 --> 00:06:37,279 or because now so many people have opportunities in society 123 00:06:37,279 --> 00:06:39,240 that they don't wanna have as large of families 124 00:06:39,240 --> 00:06:41,259 and they would rather be working or traveling 125 00:06:41,259 --> 00:06:42,839 or doing other things with their lives. 126 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:46,000 An example for a possible stage five country could be Japan 127 00:06:46,000 --> 00:06:48,180 where the population now has actually aged 128 00:06:48,180 --> 00:06:49,259 and the majority of people 129 00:06:49,259 --> 00:06:51,199 are in those post reproductive years. 130 00:06:51,199 --> 00:06:52,660 And the average family size 131 00:06:52,660 --> 00:06:54,879 has dipped below that replacement rate. 132 00:06:54,879 --> 00:06:56,540 And so now they're starting to see 133 00:06:56,540 --> 00:06:57,519 that they're gonna have an issue 134 00:06:57,519 --> 00:06:59,600 because they're not having enough people being born 135 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:01,600 to replace their current population. 136 00:07:01,600 --> 00:07:02,860 All right, so those are the main concepts 137 00:07:02,860 --> 00:07:05,240 that you need to know for the demographic transition model. 138 00:07:05,240 --> 00:07:06,160 And if you need more help with it, 139 00:07:06,160 --> 00:07:10,259 check out some of my other videos on the channel that go more in depth into that model. But now 140 00:07:10,259 --> 00:07:14,439 we're going to shift gears and talk about the epidemiologic transition model. This one looks 141 00:07:14,439 --> 00:07:19,199 at disease and death. Stage one is defined by pestilence and famine, and here unfortunately 142 00:07:19,199 --> 00:07:23,319 you're going to die to a lot of things. It's not a great time to be alive. It connects pretty 143 00:07:23,319 --> 00:07:27,560 closely to our stage one of the demographic transition model. Here you're going to see 144 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:33,019 that we have parasitic diseases and infectious diseases that spread across the land. We're also 145 00:07:33,019 --> 00:07:38,699 to see people dying to animal attacks running out of food or just from drinking water that's tainted 146 00:07:38,699 --> 00:07:44,860 we could also see that pandemics and epidemics will impact large swaths of geographic areas and 147 00:07:44,860 --> 00:07:49,420 here your cdr is going to be extremely high an example actually we could look at would be the 148 00:07:49,420 --> 00:07:54,139 bubonic plague that would fit in stage one of this model now if you're lucky enough to make it out of 149 00:07:54,139 --> 00:07:59,180 stage one and move into stage two you're going to see that the pandemics start to recede they pull 150 00:07:59,180 --> 00:08:04,000 back. We're now seeing advancements in medicine and technology. Remember, stage two of that 151 00:08:04,000 --> 00:08:08,540 demographic transition model is when the industrial revolution and that medical revolution occur. 152 00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:14,379 And this allows our life expectancy to go up, our infant mortality rate to go down. And now we're 153 00:08:14,379 --> 00:08:19,040 getting better at medicine, we're getting new technology, and we're having more access to food. 154 00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:24,079 So some of the things that were killing us before are no longer impacting us. However, we're also 155 00:08:24,079 --> 00:08:28,560 starting to see more urbanization. And because of that, we're seeing people now living closer 156 00:08:28,560 --> 00:08:33,980 together. So we still see that infectious diseases can be a problem, as things can spread throughout 157 00:08:33,980 --> 00:08:39,360 now these very densely populated areas. And while sanitation was improving, it still wasn't that 158 00:08:39,360 --> 00:08:43,039 great. Now when countries get to stage three of this model, they deal more with degenerative 159 00:08:43,039 --> 00:08:48,559 diseases. No longer are they as impacted by infectious diseases. And the reason why is 160 00:08:48,559 --> 00:08:53,019 because we're living so long. Now we have more advancements in medicine and technology, which 161 00:08:53,019 --> 00:08:58,759 increases our life expectancy. So now people are dealing more with cancer, heart attacks, 162 00:08:58,919 --> 00:09:04,360 strokes, diabetes. Some of these are actually kind of human created because of our diet. Society has 163 00:09:04,360 --> 00:09:09,080 gained so many options for food and also allows for a more sedentary lifestyle that we start to 164 00:09:09,080 --> 00:09:13,620 see people's health actually be negatively impacted. And before we wouldn't see the impacts 165 00:09:13,620 --> 00:09:16,980 of this because people didn't live long enough. Today, if we look at a map of the world and we're 166 00:09:16,980 --> 00:09:21,799 looking at cancer rates, we can see some parts of the world have very low numbers. It's not that 167 00:09:21,799 --> 00:09:26,960 they solved or cured cancer. No, it's they haven't gotten to stage three yet. Their life expectancy 168 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:31,460 isn't that high, so they're not dealing with some of these degenerative diseases yet. Now, when a 169 00:09:31,460 --> 00:09:36,019 country gets to stage four, the focus is on delaying degenerative diseases. Here, we're trying to cure 170 00:09:36,019 --> 00:09:40,960 cancer. We're doing transplants. We're focusing on our lifestyles and how we can live better and 171 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:47,019 healthier lives. Sanitation becomes a big focus. Exercising, reducing the amount of tobacco that's 172 00:09:47,019 --> 00:09:48,559 used in society. 173 00:09:48,559 --> 00:09:50,779 All these things help us live longer 174 00:09:50,779 --> 00:09:53,120 and this is where medicine continues to improve 175 00:09:53,120 --> 00:09:55,720 as we keep trying to push that life expectancy up 176 00:09:55,720 --> 00:09:58,100 and those degenerative diseases back. 177 00:09:58,100 --> 00:09:59,919 Now one risk that happens here too 178 00:09:59,919 --> 00:10:01,899 and it's similar to stage three 179 00:10:01,899 --> 00:10:04,379 is because our society is so developed now, 180 00:10:04,379 --> 00:10:06,080 more people become sedentary 181 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:08,740 and so we start to see issues with obesity 182 00:10:08,740 --> 00:10:11,659 and that also has to do with junk food and fast food 183 00:10:11,659 --> 00:10:14,200 are very prevalent during this time of society. 184 00:10:14,200 --> 00:10:15,899 So it makes it easy to eat unhealthy. 185 00:10:15,899 --> 00:10:19,820 Now the last stage is stage five, and this stage is defined by the reemergence of infectious 186 00:10:19,820 --> 00:10:20,820 diseases. 187 00:10:20,820 --> 00:10:24,620 This stage doesn't go as well with the demographic transition model, but it's a really important 188 00:10:24,620 --> 00:10:26,320 one to understand. 189 00:10:26,320 --> 00:10:30,820 Here we see that parasitic and infectious diseases make a return, and this happens for 190 00:10:30,820 --> 00:10:31,960 a variety of reasons. 191 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:36,159 The first reason is that diseases will start to have a resistance to antibiotics. 192 00:10:36,159 --> 00:10:40,899 Over time, diseases evolve, and as we continue to use medicine and other environmental threats, 193 00:10:40,899 --> 00:10:42,580 they continue to change. 194 00:10:42,580 --> 00:10:46,179 And eventually we could run into things like superbugs, where things like penicillin may 195 00:10:46,179 --> 00:10:50,200 no longer be as effective as they once were, and that's when we would have some pretty 196 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:51,200 big issues. 197 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:54,779 Another reason we could see stage 5 occur is due to increased urbanization. 198 00:10:54,779 --> 00:10:58,679 As our cities become larger and larger, they become more densely populated. 199 00:10:58,679 --> 00:11:02,399 And as we have more and more people living together, there's a higher chance of diseases 200 00:11:02,399 --> 00:11:03,840 spreading throughout. 201 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:06,559 And especially when we look at poverty as well. 202 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:10,179 If we have low-income communities that are tightly packed together, they probably have 203 00:11:10,179 --> 00:11:14,340 less access to health care and other medicines that they may need, and so a disease could 204 00:11:14,340 --> 00:11:18,480 quickly spread throughout a neighborhood, especially when you have multiple generations 205 00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:20,679 of family living in one home. 206 00:11:20,679 --> 00:11:25,299 That could create problems and could also then see the reemergence of these infectious 207 00:11:25,299 --> 00:11:26,299 diseases. 208 00:11:26,299 --> 00:11:27,299 Our last cause could be actually globalization. 209 00:11:27,299 --> 00:11:31,980 Today, the world's connected in ways that we've never been connected before, and this 210 00:11:31,980 --> 00:11:35,299 leads to people interacting with people all over the world. 211 00:11:35,299 --> 00:11:39,580 When we get on airplanes and boats, when we drive our cars, we're interacting with different 212 00:11:39,580 --> 00:11:44,799 geographic places. And sometimes we might be exposed to different diseases that our bodies 213 00:11:44,799 --> 00:11:48,779 aren't used to. Then when we go back home, we spread it throughout our community. A perfect 214 00:11:48,779 --> 00:11:53,940 example of this could actually be COVID-19. COVID-19 spread quickly in densely populated 215 00:11:53,940 --> 00:11:59,740 areas. And it spread also through international travel and trade, globalization, as it went to 216 00:11:59,740 --> 00:12:04,659 the major cities around the world. It also impacts people at a lower income more because they have 217 00:12:04,659 --> 00:12:10,820 less access to health care services and they're also living in closely packed areas which allows 218 00:12:10,820 --> 00:12:15,159 the disease to spread quickly throughout all right that's it for this video now this is really 219 00:12:15,159 --> 00:12:19,019 important i know i say this in all the other videos but you need to do these practice questions 220 00:12:19,019 --> 00:12:23,620 you can see them on the screen right now these two models are extremely important for you to 221 00:12:23,620 --> 00:12:28,679 understand so practice what we just went over i covered a ton of stuff in this video and when 222 00:12:28,679 --> 00:12:32,399 you're done make sure to check your answers in the comment section below and if you're still 223 00:12:32,399 --> 00:12:37,120 struggling a little bit check out my ultimate review packet for more resources and help on 224 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:41,580 all these concepts in ap thank you so much for spending time with me today and learning about 225 00:12:41,580 --> 00:12:47,799 the demographic transition and the epidemiologic transition model i'm mr sin and until next time 226 00:12:47,799 --> 00:12:54,240 geographers i'll see you online hey hanging out with the end cards i see thank you so much again 227 00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:58,860 for watching the video by the way if you want more mr sin content don't forget to check me out 228 00:12:58,860 --> 00:13:00,440 on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. 229 00:13:00,799 --> 00:13:02,559 You can find the links in the description below. 230 00:13:02,960 --> 00:13:04,539 Thanks again for watching, geographers, 231 00:13:04,620 --> 00:13:06,580 and good luck with your studies. 232 00:13:07,059 --> 00:13:09,059 All right, I'm gonna go film 2.6 now, 233 00:13:09,139 --> 00:13:10,279 so you guys have a great day.