1 00:00:00,650 --> 00:00:05,650 Never before in history have there been so many people on Earth as right now. 2 00:00:06,049 --> 00:00:12,490 Our numbers have skyrocketed from 1 billion in 1800 to 2.3 billion in 1940, 3 00:00:13,070 --> 00:00:19,410 3.7 billion in 1970 and 7.4 billion in 2016. 4 00:00:20,109 --> 00:00:23,730 The world population increased fourfold in the last century, 5 00:00:24,089 --> 00:00:26,230 so what can we expect for the next century? 6 00:00:26,710 --> 00:00:29,730 And what does population growth mean for our future? 7 00:00:30,050 --> 00:00:46,049 Will there be mass migration, overcrowded slums in megacities covering continents, diseases and pollution, chaos and violence over energy, water and food, and a human species focused only on sustaining itself? 8 00:00:46,049 --> 00:00:53,049 Will population growth destroy our way of life, or is this prophecy just ungrounded panic? 9 00:00:53,049 --> 00:01:10,010 In the 1960s, population growth reached an unprecedented rate, which led to apocalyptic prophecies. 10 00:01:11,510 --> 00:01:15,549 The poor would procreate endlessly and overrun the developed world. 11 00:01:16,170 --> 00:01:18,469 The legend of overpopulation was born. 12 00:01:19,849 --> 00:01:26,189 But it turns out high birth rates and the population explosion are not permanent features of some cultures or countries, 13 00:01:26,189 --> 00:01:31,930 but rather part of a four-step process the whole world is going through, the demographic transition. 14 00:01:32,549 --> 00:01:38,549 Most developed countries have already made the transition, while other countries are doing it right now. 15 00:01:38,549 --> 00:01:45,549 Let's go back to the 18th century, when the entire world, including Europe, was in the first stage of the demographic transition. 16 00:01:45,549 --> 00:01:54,549 By today's standards, Europe was worse off than a developing region, suffering from poor sanitation, poor diets and poor medicine. 17 00:01:54,549 --> 00:02:00,549 A lot of people were born, but lots of them died just as fast, so the population hardly grew. 18 00:02:00,549 --> 00:02:05,049 Women had between four and six children, but only two of them would reach adulthood. 19 00:02:06,170 --> 00:02:08,930 Then the Industrial Revolution happened in the UK 20 00:02:08,930 --> 00:02:13,710 and brought the greatest change in human living conditions since the Agricultural Revolution. 21 00:02:14,330 --> 00:02:17,110 People went from being peasants to workers. 22 00:02:18,849 --> 00:02:22,189 Manufactured goods were mass-produced and became widely available. 23 00:02:22,930 --> 00:02:27,750 The sciences flourished and advanced transportation, communication and medicine. 24 00:02:28,669 --> 00:02:33,569 The role of women in society shifted and created the conditions for their emancipation. 25 00:02:34,610 --> 00:02:37,909 Slowly, this economic progress not only formed a middle class, 26 00:02:38,169 --> 00:02:42,110 but also raised standards of living and healthcare for the poor working population. 27 00:02:42,650 --> 00:02:44,930 The second transition stage started. 28 00:02:45,710 --> 00:02:50,590 Better food supplies, hygiene and medicine meant people stopped dying all the time, 29 00:02:50,889 --> 00:02:52,590 especially so at a very young age. 30 00:02:52,909 --> 00:02:59,650 The result was a population explosion, doubling the UK's population between 1750 and 1850. 31 00:03:00,509 --> 00:03:05,289 The main reason families used to have lots of children was that only a few of them were likely to survive. 32 00:03:05,990 --> 00:03:09,969 Now that had changed, so the third stage of the transition was set in motion, 33 00:03:10,430 --> 00:03:13,830 fewer babies were conceived, and population growth slowed down. 34 00:03:15,110 --> 00:03:16,849 Eventually, a balance emerged. 35 00:03:16,930 --> 00:03:22,550 Fewer people were dying and fewer children were born, so the death rate and birth rate became stable. 36 00:03:22,590 --> 00:03:26,590 Britain had reached the fourth stage of the demographic transition. 37 00:03:26,590 --> 00:03:32,590 This didn't only happen in the UK. More and more countries went through the four stages. 38 00:03:32,590 --> 00:03:36,590 First, many births and many deaths due to bad living conditions. 39 00:03:36,590 --> 00:03:41,590 Second, better living conditions leading to fewer deaths and a population explosion. 40 00:03:41,590 --> 00:03:47,590 Third, fewer deaths resulting in fewer births and population growth came to an end. 41 00:03:47,590 --> 00:03:52,830 But if birth rates have dropped so much, why is the population still growing so fast? 42 00:03:53,289 --> 00:03:58,590 Well, the children born in the population explosion of the 70s and 80s are having kids themselves now, 43 00:03:58,770 --> 00:04:01,530 leading to a noticeable spike in overall population. 44 00:04:01,849 --> 00:04:04,949 But they are having far fewer children on average than their parents. 45 00:04:05,389 --> 00:04:09,310 The average today is 2.5. It was 5 40 years ago. 46 00:04:10,090 --> 00:04:17,250 So as this generation gets older and fertility declines further, the rate of population growth will keep on slowing. 47 00:04:17,589 --> 00:04:23,589 This is true for every country. In the West, we tend to overlook progress in other regions of the world. 48 00:04:23,589 --> 00:04:27,589 But actually, most of the world's countries have made it to the fourth stage. 49 00:04:27,589 --> 00:04:35,589 Just look at Bangladesh. In 1971, the average woman had 7 kids, but 25% of them would die before the age of 5. 50 00:04:35,589 --> 00:04:42,589 In 2015, the mortality rate was down to 3.8% and women had only 2.2 kids on average. 51 00:04:43,389 --> 00:04:45,529 This is the rule, not an exception. 52 00:04:46,129 --> 00:04:48,189 We're not special. We just had a head start. 53 00:04:48,930 --> 00:04:54,329 It took developed countries about 80 years to reduce fertility from more than six children to less than three. 54 00:04:55,230 --> 00:04:56,709 Others are catching up fast. 55 00:04:57,149 --> 00:05:00,209 Malaysia and South Africa did it in only 34 years. 56 00:05:00,750 --> 00:05:02,149 Bangladesh took just 20. 57 00:05:02,629 --> 00:05:04,470 Iran managed it in 10 years. 58 00:05:04,990 --> 00:05:08,329 All these countries that are catching up didn't have to start from scratch, 59 00:05:08,649 --> 00:05:11,050 and the more support they get, the faster they catch up. 60 00:05:11,050 --> 00:05:17,050 This is why programs that help lower child mortality or help poor nations develop are so important. 61 00:05:17,050 --> 00:05:22,050 No matter what your motivation is, whether you dream of a world where all people live in freedom and wealth, 62 00:05:22,050 --> 00:05:25,050 or you just want fewer refugees coming to your country, 63 00:05:25,050 --> 00:05:32,050 the simple truth is that it's beneficial to you personally if people on the other side of the globe can live a good life. 64 00:05:32,050 --> 00:05:39,050 And we are getting there. The percentage of people living in extreme poverty has never been as low as today. 65 00:05:39,050 --> 00:05:45,050 So the future of global population growth is actually not an apocalyptic prophecy at all. 66 00:05:45,050 --> 00:05:49,050 It's a promise. Population growth will come to an end. 67 00:05:49,050 --> 00:05:54,050 The UN forecasts that the 12th billionth human will never be born at all. 68 00:05:54,050 --> 00:06:02,050 And as the development level of the world rises, the number of people with a higher education will increase tenfold. 69 00:06:02,050 --> 00:06:07,050 Countries who used to be in need will help advance development instead. 70 00:06:07,050 --> 00:06:11,610 more people is going to mean more people able to advance our species 71 00:06:14,959 --> 00:06:18,560 this video was a collaboration with max rosa and our world in data 72 00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:23,279 where he explores the progress of humanity through research and data visualization 73 00:06:23,279 --> 00:06:29,519 make sure to check it out in 2016 we were able to make more and better content than ever before 74 00:06:29,519 --> 00:06:39,360 because of your support on patreon.com thank you so much and we'll be back in the year 12 017.