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We live in a world of relentless change.

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Huge migrations of people to new megacities,

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filling soaring skyscrapers and vast slumps.

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Revenous appetites for fuel and food.

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Unpredictable climate change.

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And all this in a world where the population is still growing.

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should we be worried should we be scared how to make sense of it all seven billion people now

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live on this planet of ours isn't it beautiful but when some people think about the world and

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its future they panic others prefer not to think about it at all but tonight i'm going to show you

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how things really are.

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My name is Hans Rosling.

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I'm a statistician that, no, no, no, no, don't switch off,

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because with the latest data from all country,

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I'm going to show you the world in a new way.

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I'm going to tell you how world population is changing

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and what today's data tell us

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about how the future of the world will be.

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We undeniably face huge challenges,

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but the good news is that the future

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may not be quite as gloomy

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And that mankind already is doing better than many of you think.

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Babies.

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Each one a blessing.

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But many people think population growth is out of control.

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Some even talk of a population bomb.

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Are they right?

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So where are we with population today?

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And how did we get here?

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I'm going to tell you a story about everyone who ever lived.

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Well, at least during the last some thousand years.

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Here we go.

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I give you two axes.

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This is time in years.

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And this one here is world population in billions.

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In the year 10,000 BC, when the first people were becoming farmers,

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then the archaeologists estimate that the world population was only 10 million.

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Imagine 10 million.

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That's like Sweden today.

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A world of only Swedes.

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But then, as the millennia passed by,

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more farmers, food, and people,

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and great empires could emerge.

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Egypt, China, India, and finally, Europe.

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And population continued to grow, but very slowly.

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And I stop here at the year 1800,

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1800, because 1800, that's when world population became one billion.

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Imagine all that time, the population growth was just with a tiny fraction of a percent through thousands of years.

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But here, 1800, with the Industrial Revolution, everything changed and population started to grow faster.

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In little more than 100 years, it reached two billion.

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And then, you know, when I was at school, it was 3 billion.

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And many people said, the planet cannot support more people.

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Even experts said that.

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But what happens was this, you know, we became 4 billion, 5 billion, 6 billion, 7 billion.

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Imagine, more than half of the world population have been added during my lifetime.

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And the number is still rising.

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Most of the population growth in recent years has been in Asian countries, like here in

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Bangladesh.

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But the population has tripled during my lifetime, from 50 to more than 150 million.

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It's now one of the most densely populated countries in the world.

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Some 15 million already live in the very crowded capital, Dhaka.

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People here, whether in the city or the countryside, are intensely concerned about the size of

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families.

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But a new Bangladesh is emerging, like the Khan family, Mum Taslima, daughters Tanjina

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and little Sadia, and dad, Hanan.

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Both Taslim and Hanan come from large families themselves,

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but they've decided to have just two children.

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I hope one of them is good.

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I'm going to the next one.

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My wife told me that I have two children.

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I had a lot of children, so I had to give them the first child.

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I gave them the first child, and they were very happy.

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I gave them the first child, and they were very happy.

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I gave them the first child, and they were very happy.

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What about you?

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I have three children.

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I have three children.

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Taslima and Hanan are part of a cultural shift away from big families.

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And for Taslima, it's also become a job.

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She works for the government family planning service,

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which employs women like her in every village.

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She goes door to door to try to help others to have smaller families too.

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Taslima offers advice, moral support and most importantly a range of contraceptives.

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So how successful has Taslima and Bangladesh been in reducing fertility rate, that is,

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number of babies born per woman? In Sweden, we set up Gapminder Foundation

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to make the world's data available in a way that everyone can understand.

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So I can show you the situation in Bangladesh and what has happened.

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Here, a horizontal axis, babies per woman,

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all the way from one to two to seven to eight.

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And here, a vertical axis, that is lifespan, life expectancy,

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how many years a newborn can expect to live,

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from 30 all the way up to 90.

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Now, we start in 1972, a very important year for Bangladesh,

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the first full year of independence.

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That year, Bangladesh was over there,

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and they had on average seven babies per woman,

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and lifespan was less than 50 years.

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So what has happened after independence?

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Have life become longer in Bangladesh?

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Have children become fewer?

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Here is the data. I start Bangladesh.

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Indeed, you know, life is getting longer and babies fewer.

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Six, five, and life even longer.

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Four, three, and they land now almost to two.

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It's 2.2 and the lifespan is 70.

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It's absolutely amazing.

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In 40 years, Bangladesh have gone from seven, six, five, four, three, two.

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It's a miracle that has happened in Bangladesh.

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But is it only in Bangladesh?

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Well, I'll show you the whole world.

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I will go back 50 years in time to 1963.

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Here are all the countries.

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And these green ones is America, north and south.

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The yellow ones is Europe, east and west.

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And blue is Africa, north and south of the Sahara.

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And red is Asia, and we include Australia and New Zealand.

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The size of the bubble shows the size of the population.

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Look, the big ones over there is China and India,

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and Bangladesh is just behind.

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In 1963, the average number of babies born per woman in the world was five.

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But it was a divided world. Can you see that?

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These countries over here, the developed countries,

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they had small families and long lives.

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And then there were the developing countries over here.

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And they had large families and short lives.

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And very few were in between.

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But now we'll see what has happened.

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I start the world.

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Here we go.

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And you can see that China is getting, the big bubble is getting to better health.

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And then they start family planning.

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They move along to smaller families.

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And the big green, look at Mexico.

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Mexico is coming there.

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And this is Brazil, also the green in Latin America.

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And here India is following.

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India is following. The big red bubbles are Asian countries going this way.

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Many Africans are still with many babies born per woman.

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And then Bangladesh over there overtakes India on its way to the small family.

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And now almost all go up to this bubble.

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Even Africans are starting to move up.

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Oh, that was the earthquake in Haiti.

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And now everyone ends up there.

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What a change we have.

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Today, you know, in the world, the average is 2.5.

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Imagine, you know, it used to be 50 years ago, five.

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And the world has changed.

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The average number of babies born per woman have gone from five to 2.5.

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And it's still decreasing.

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What a big change.

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People would think that Bangladesh and countries like that

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is some sort of epicenter of a population bomb.

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They couldn't be more wrong.

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To me, health workers like Mrs Taslima and their colleagues who have taken their countries

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from this side all over in a few decades to much better health and small families, they

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are the heroes of our time.

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It's an amazing change that has happened.

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We no longer live in a divided world.

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But how much do people know about this amazing change?

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But Gapminder, we not only show data, we also measure how much people know or don't know

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about the world.

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So we did a first survey in Sweden.

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The results were depressing.

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So we did our second survey in Britain, and we had high hopes, because the British have

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been all over the place, you know.

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So we thought we would get good results here.

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The first question we asked was, how many babies do women have, on average, in Bangladesh?

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And we gave four alternatives, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, or 5.5.

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This is the result of the British survey.

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But you know the right answer.

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It's 2.5.

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Only 12% of the British got it right.

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So we thought that perhaps it was those with low education who dragged down the result.

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So we segmented those who had been to the fine British universities and had a university

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degree.

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And here they are.

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This is the result.

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If anything worse.

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So now you may conclude that the British lack knowledge about the world.

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What if I would have asked this chap and his friends?

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I would have written the different answers on bananas and let them pick one banana each,

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you know.

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This result I would get.

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Cause chimps know nothing about bananas.

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But by pure random, they will pick twice as many correct answers as the British.

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Even of the British, you know, more than half of the British people think it's 4.5 or more.

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The problem here is not lack of knowledge, it's preconceived ideas.

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The British cannot even imagine, cannot even guess that women in Bangladesh have 2.5, and

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you know it's really 2.2 already.

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This is what the Brits don't know, that Taslima and her family are the norm in Bangladesh

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today, the most common family size.

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It's not only there. It's all over the world in Brazil to child families

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Vietnam to child families and

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Even in India the most common family size is two children today

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And also if you go to the African continent you go to the big cities here at this Ababa

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You have less than two children per woman today in others happen. They can be

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Muslim Buddhist Hindu Christian

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There's not one religion, not one culture, not one continent where two-child families

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cannot happen.

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This change from big families down to two-child families is one of the most important things

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that have happened in the world during my lifetime.

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It's unprecedented in human history.

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Here we are, back in Bangladesh.

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find the reasons behind this historic and continuing shift from large to small families.

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Almost all girls in Muslim Bangladesh, like 15-year-old Tanjina, go to school today. The

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government now even pays families money to keep their daughters on at secondary level.

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At Tanjina school, boys are now outnumbered by girls.

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You could hardly miss the point of this lesson.

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Education is effective, and there are also new opportunities for Bangladeshi women.

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Despite continuing inequalities, there are more jobs, and Tanjina is aiming high.

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More and more young women here are seeing how different things could be for them.

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I don't know why I got married. I can't imagine it.

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It's not possible for me to get married in two years.

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I got married so quickly.

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I don't understand. I made a mistake.

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Now no one makes mistakes.

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How old were you when you got married?

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I was 25.

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I finished my studies and got a job.

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I became a doctor.

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It's wonderful to see Taslima so full of hope for a bright future for her two daughters.

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But one essential transformation underpins the change in Bangladesh.

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It's a dramatic improvement in child survival.

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It's Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting and reflection.

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At this auspicious time, Hanan is helping his parents to tend the family graveyard.

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Three of Hanan's siblings died when they were very young.

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They are buried here.

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Back when Hanan's parents were a young couple, one in five children in Bangladesh died before

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they reached five years of age.

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All families lived with a constant fear of losing one or more children.

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In the last few decades, Bangladesh has made great progress in basic health, particularly

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in child survival.

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Vaccines, treatment of infections and better nutrition and hygiene have all saved the lives

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of millions of children and as parents have come to see that all of their children are now likely

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to survive the biggest obstacle to family planning has at last gone even in the slums of dhaka women

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now have on average just two children child survival drives everything let's go back into

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history why did the world population grow so slowly before 1800 well throughout history all

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historical records show us that on average two parents got more or less six children but that

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looks as a very fast population growth so why didn't it grow because one two three four of the

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children died before growing up to become parents themselves. People in the past never

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lived in ecological balance with nature. They died in ecological balance with nature. It

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was utterly tragic. But with the Industrial Revolution, this changed. Better wages, more

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food tapped water better sanitation soap medical advances you know so why did then from all these

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advances why did population grow was it because they got more children no 1963 that year when i

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was at school actually the number of children per woman had decreased a little in the world to five

245
00:20:27,119 --> 00:20:34,480
and the reason for the fast population growth was the improved child survivor four survived at that

246
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:43,680
time but still one out of five died that was still terrible so it's only in the recent decades that

247
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:49,839
most of the countries have taken big leap forwards in child survival and in family planning so that

248
00:20:49,839 --> 00:20:57,680
we are now approaching the new balance and it's a nice balance two parents on average get two

249
00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:03,200
children that survive we have families in a very happy balance this is the most

250
00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:09,079
normal family situation in the world today and what does this mean for the

251
00:21:09,079 --> 00:21:14,240
future I will show you the projection the best projection into the future from

252
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:19,160
the the finest demographers we have at the population division of the United

253
00:21:19,160 --> 00:21:24,619
Nations and it looks like this it's going to continue first up to eight and

254
00:21:24,619 --> 00:21:30,539
and then it goes up to nine and then it goes here but see it's slowing down it's slowing down by the

255
00:21:30,539 --> 00:21:38,700
end of the century it's becoming more flat there and if i do a close-up on this you can see that

256
00:21:38,700 --> 00:21:43,420
we are expecting a slowing down and the end of fast population growth

257
00:21:45,259 --> 00:21:49,500
but of course this is a projection that has a certain degree of uncertainty

258
00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:55,079
But we are sure that we are at the end of fast population growth within this century.

259
00:21:56,240 --> 00:22:00,240
It's all due to a remarkable effect of the falling fertility rate.

260
00:22:00,500 --> 00:22:02,319
Look here, if we go back into this.

261
00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:06,099
I'll show this by showing you the number of children in the world.

262
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:09,980
The number of children from 0 to 15 years of age.

263
00:22:10,180 --> 00:22:10,759
Here they come.

264
00:22:10,960 --> 00:22:11,559
Look.

265
00:22:12,660 --> 00:22:17,500
The number of children there increased slowly and then also it increased rapidly.

266
00:22:17,500 --> 00:22:22,339
So by the turn of the century here, there were 2 billion children in the world.

267
00:22:23,400 --> 00:22:28,200
And to me, that was an important year because that was when Doris was born.

268
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:29,779
That's my first grandchild.

269
00:22:30,500 --> 00:22:35,180
And she was born at a very special time for children in the world, you know.

270
00:22:35,420 --> 00:22:40,740
Because the specialists, the demographers estimate that from this year,

271
00:22:41,140 --> 00:22:44,319
the number of children in the world will continue like this.

272
00:22:45,019 --> 00:22:47,440
It will not increase any longer.

273
00:22:47,500 --> 00:22:52,640
By the end of the century, we will still have 2 billion children in the world.

274
00:22:53,099 --> 00:22:59,359
When Doris was born is when the world entered into the age of peak child.

275
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,740
The number of children are not increasing.

276
00:23:03,539 --> 00:23:06,259
Now, this will confuse you.

277
00:23:06,259 --> 00:23:13,119
Because how can then the total population grow like this if the children doesn't increase?

278
00:23:13,339 --> 00:23:15,539
Where will all these adults come from?

279
00:23:16,539 --> 00:23:20,279
And to explain that, I have to leave this fancy digital stuff

280
00:23:20,279 --> 00:23:24,440
and show you real powerful educational material we have developed.

281
00:23:24,980 --> 00:23:26,160
And it's here.

282
00:23:27,220 --> 00:23:30,400
I will show you the world population, ladies and gentlemen,

283
00:23:30,619 --> 00:23:33,000
in the form of foam blocks.

284
00:23:35,259 --> 00:23:37,359
One block is one billion.

285
00:23:38,299 --> 00:23:39,880
One block is one billion.

286
00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:43,880
And that means that we have two billion children in the world.

287
00:23:43,880 --> 00:23:51,880
then we have 2 billion between 15 and 30 years of age these are rounded numbers

288
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:59,380
we have 1 billion 30 to 45 we have 1 billion 45 to 60 and then we have my

289
00:23:59,380 --> 00:24:05,319
block 60 years and older we are here on top this is the world population today

290
00:24:05,319 --> 00:24:11,440
and you can see that there are three billions missing like here only few of

291
00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:15,660
them are missing because they have died most of them are missing because they were never born

292
00:24:15,660 --> 00:24:22,660
because back then you know before 1980 there were much fewer children born in the world because

293
00:24:22,660 --> 00:24:28,319
there were fewer women giving birth to children so this is what we have today now what will happen

294
00:24:28,319 --> 00:24:36,200
in the future do you know what happens to old people like me they die yes there was someone

295
00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:45,539
here who works in hospitals so they die the rest they grow 15 years older and have two billion

296
00:24:45,539 --> 00:24:53,059
children these ones are now old time to die and then these ones grow 15 years older and they have

297
00:24:53,059 --> 00:24:58,900
two billion children this one die and the rest grow 15 years older and have two billion children

298
00:24:58,900 --> 00:25:02,799
And without increasing the number of children,

299
00:25:03,440 --> 00:25:05,859
without increasing the length of life,

300
00:25:05,859 --> 00:25:11,460
we have 3 billion people more by this big, inevitable fill-up of adults,

301
00:25:11,799 --> 00:25:15,400
which will happen just when the large young generations grow up.

302
00:25:15,940 --> 00:25:18,240
Now, there's one more detail,

303
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,240
which is good news for the older ones here, like me,

304
00:25:21,539 --> 00:25:24,900
that it's estimated that the old people will live a little longer.

305
00:25:25,180 --> 00:25:28,740
So we have to add 1 billion more for the old here on the top.

306
00:25:28,900 --> 00:25:33,019
and I'm desperately hoping that I will be part of that group

307
00:25:33,019 --> 00:25:36,359
because then I can live long and read the annual statistic

308
00:25:36,359 --> 00:25:38,519
as they come reporting every year.

309
00:25:38,960 --> 00:25:43,380
But when I talk to many fine environmental activists

310
00:25:43,380 --> 00:25:46,460
which really have a good concern about the environment,

311
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:47,859
they very often tell me,

312
00:25:48,140 --> 00:25:50,079
we have to stop population growth at 8 billion.

313
00:25:51,319 --> 00:25:52,900
But when I then talk with them,

314
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,980
first they don't know that we have reedspeak child

315
00:25:55,980 --> 00:25:58,420
and then they are completely unaware

316
00:25:58,420 --> 00:26:01,359
that most of the remaining population growth

317
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,480
is an inevitable fill-up of adults.

318
00:26:04,420 --> 00:26:09,660
So we will end up with more or less this amount of people.

319
00:26:10,420 --> 00:26:13,099
So we know how many billions there will be,

320
00:26:13,200 --> 00:26:17,559
but what about where they live now and in the future?

321
00:26:21,819 --> 00:26:25,220
There you have the world, and here are the seven billion.

322
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:31,440
Now, out of the seven billion, one live in the Americas.

323
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:33,099
North and south together.

324
00:26:33,740 --> 00:26:35,059
One in Europe.

325
00:26:36,079 --> 00:26:37,839
One in Africa.

326
00:26:38,279 --> 00:26:41,039
And four in Asia.

327
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:42,839
So this is now.

328
00:26:42,980 --> 00:26:44,140
But how to remember this?

329
00:26:44,220 --> 00:26:46,259
I have a very simple way of remembering this.

330
00:26:46,519 --> 00:26:47,920
I put up the numbers like this,

331
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,240
and then I say, this is the pin code of the world.

332
00:26:50,519 --> 00:26:51,380
One, one, one, four.

333
00:26:52,220 --> 00:26:54,859
Now, what will happen up to mid-century?

334
00:26:55,599 --> 00:26:56,920
Let me know fairly well.

335
00:26:57,839 --> 00:26:59,000
Europe, no increase.

336
00:26:59,079 --> 00:27:01,359
In fact, the European population is decreasing.

337
00:27:01,460 --> 00:27:08,000
In America, a little more people, mainly retired people in Latin America, so it makes no difference.

338
00:27:08,000 --> 00:27:10,700
It's more or less the same.

339
00:27:10,700 --> 00:27:13,859
In Asia, we will have one billion more.

340
00:27:13,859 --> 00:27:17,000
And then the population growth in Asia is over.

341
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:22,960
In Africa, in the next 40 years, the population will double to two billion.

342
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:28,500
Now to the end of the century, well, we know quite well no more people in Europe, no more

343
00:27:28,500 --> 00:27:30,259
in America, no more in Asia.

344
00:27:30,259 --> 00:27:34,819
Africa is set, as we have data today, for another doubling.

345
00:27:35,119 --> 00:27:37,460
So there will be four billions in Africa.

346
00:27:38,819 --> 00:27:44,980
The 2100, and probably the final pin code, will be 1145.

347
00:27:46,819 --> 00:27:50,000
So in 2100, there will be quite a different world.

348
00:27:50,480 --> 00:27:54,319
The people who live in what I call the Old West,

349
00:27:54,319 --> 00:27:55,940
in West Europe and North America,

350
00:27:56,099 --> 00:27:58,920
will by then be less than 10% of the world population.

351
00:27:58,920 --> 00:28:03,920
80% of the world population will be living in Asia and Africa.

352
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:07,920
But will there be resources enough to sustain them?

353
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:13,920
Well, this will be a huge challenge, and nothing will come automatically.

354
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:20,920
But my take is that it is possible for all these billions to live well together.

355
00:28:29,099 --> 00:28:34,099
Certainly, it's easy to see the potential for a prosperous and peaceful Asia

356
00:28:34,099 --> 00:28:36,180
with five billion people.

357
00:28:37,180 --> 00:28:40,039
Japan, South Korea and others are already rich.

358
00:28:40,720 --> 00:28:42,759
Following them on the road to wealth

359
00:28:42,759 --> 00:28:47,160
are larger and larger parts of China, India, Indonesia

360
00:28:47,160 --> 00:28:49,259
and many other Asian countries.

361
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:51,880
Even in poorer Asian countries,

362
00:28:52,140 --> 00:28:54,759
more and more are getting a decent life.

363
00:28:57,119 --> 00:29:01,740
But what about the future Africa, of as much as four billion?

364
00:29:02,720 --> 00:29:06,500
Won't most of them be living in terrible poverty?

365
00:29:08,039 --> 00:29:11,200
I have seen extreme poverty in Africa.

366
00:29:11,880 --> 00:29:17,319
30 years ago, I spent the two most intense years of my life

367
00:29:17,319 --> 00:29:21,200
working as medical doctor in one of the poorest countries,

368
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:24,940
Mozambique, on the east coast of Africa.

369
00:29:25,759 --> 00:29:28,599
Mozambique had just become independent

370
00:29:28,599 --> 00:29:33,259
after a long war against the colonial power, Portugal.

371
00:29:34,000 --> 00:29:37,799
And my job was to be one of two doctors.

372
00:29:37,940 --> 00:29:41,539
We were both foreigners for 300,000 people.

373
00:29:42,099 --> 00:29:43,839
And this was the hospital.

374
00:29:44,359 --> 00:29:46,940
My wife was also there working as a midwife.

375
00:29:47,740 --> 00:29:49,940
This is the entire staff of the hospital.

376
00:29:49,940 --> 00:29:54,619
Those with white coats had the chance during the colonial period

377
00:29:54,619 --> 00:29:57,619
to get the professional training of at least one year.

378
00:29:57,619 --> 00:30:01,319
The others, many of them, couldn't even read and write.

379
00:30:01,700 --> 00:30:05,579
But they all worked with such dedication and motivation.

380
00:30:06,660 --> 00:30:12,200
But the patients came with the worst diseases of extreme poverty,

381
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,380
and our resources were often not enough.

382
00:30:15,799 --> 00:30:22,039
And especially my skills as a young doctor did not meet the need of the patients.

383
00:30:22,900 --> 00:30:25,859
Mozambique is still today a very poor country.

384
00:30:25,859 --> 00:30:37,299
but things have improved immensely since I was there 30 years ago for a start

385
00:30:37,299 --> 00:30:45,039
there's now a brand new hospital in the town where I worked 30 years ago the new

386
00:30:45,039 --> 00:30:51,579
much bigger hospital has 15 doctors and 11 of them are Mozambicans all the staff

387
00:30:51,579 --> 00:31:00,339
are now well-trained the director of the hospital is dr. Kashimo the obstetrician

388
00:31:00,339 --> 00:31:12,380
the transformation here is amazing to me

389
00:31:21,579 --> 00:31:30,819
They routinely save women in childbirth with cesareans, something that was impossible when

390
00:31:30,819 --> 00:31:49,150
I was there.

391
00:31:49,150 --> 00:31:52,450
Everything has improved so much.

392
00:31:52,450 --> 00:32:01,440
Those born in Mozambique today should have a much brighter future.

393
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:07,859
Not just because of better health, but a booming economy, too, with busy ports and markets

394
00:32:07,859 --> 00:32:16,099
and new industries with lots of new jobs.

395
00:32:16,099 --> 00:32:21,319
I know you might be thinking that this good news is just about cities and towns.

396
00:32:21,319 --> 00:32:22,779
And it's true.

397
00:32:22,779 --> 00:32:27,859
The worst challenge is in the rural areas where most people live.

398
00:32:27,859 --> 00:32:34,000
But things are changing here too.

399
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:41,240
Deep in rural northern Mozambique lies the district of Mogo Volas.

400
00:32:41,240 --> 00:32:47,339
This is home for Olivia, Andre and their young family.

401
00:32:47,339 --> 00:32:53,180
Like so many other poor people in the world, Olivia and Andre are farmers, reliant on what

402
00:32:53,180 --> 00:33:00,599
they grow for what they eat.

403
00:33:00,599 --> 00:33:07,349
It's 4 a.m. and the day's tasks beckon.

404
00:33:07,349 --> 00:33:15,029
heads straight to the fields. Olivia first goes to fetch water. Both have to walk miles

405
00:33:15,029 --> 00:33:34,619
to get anywhere.

406
00:33:34,619 --> 00:33:43,900
With no other means of transport, everything has to be carried.

407
00:33:43,900 --> 00:33:47,140
Olivia and Andre have eight children.

408
00:33:47,140 --> 00:33:52,539
Fertility rates are still high in much of rural Africa, and it's the poorest families

409
00:33:52,539 --> 00:33:55,940
who have the most mouths to feed.

410
00:33:55,940 --> 00:33:58,740
Anything this family can spare, they'll sell.

411
00:34:08,500 --> 00:34:29,900
But economic growth is slowly trickling into the countryside.

412
00:34:29,900 --> 00:34:35,300
Now Andre has set his sights on one thing he believes will change everything.

413
00:34:35,300 --> 00:34:48,179
Bicycles can make a huge difference to the lives of the rural poor.

414
00:34:48,179 --> 00:34:52,659
They save hours every day and get so much more done.

415
00:34:52,659 --> 00:34:58,659
With a bicycle, they can carry much heavier loads to the market and earn more money.

416
00:34:58,659 --> 00:35:03,780
They can travel to find work, and if they get sick, they can reach a health clinic in

417
00:35:03,780 --> 00:35:04,780
time.

418
00:35:04,780 --> 00:35:11,780
If you don't have the money, you can't do anything about it.

419
00:35:11,780 --> 00:35:17,780
If you don't have the money, you can't do anything about it.

420
00:35:17,780 --> 00:35:21,780
Andre and Olivia have been putting money away for two years.

421
00:35:21,780 --> 00:35:24,780
They haven't quite enough yet.

422
00:35:24,780 --> 00:35:29,780
Everything now depends on the sesame seeds, which they are just harvesting.

423
00:35:29,780 --> 00:35:33,780
If they can get a good price, they might just make it.

424
00:35:34,460 --> 00:35:34,980
Cinco.

425
00:35:37,179 --> 00:35:40,579
Andrea and Olivia live in one of the poorest countries.

426
00:35:40,800 --> 00:35:44,480
And they live in the rural area, which is the poorest part of that country.

427
00:35:45,039 --> 00:35:48,559
So how many people are there in the world living like they?

428
00:35:48,900 --> 00:35:50,780
And how many are there that are poorer?

429
00:35:51,119 --> 00:35:52,960
I'm going to show you this joystick.

430
00:35:53,380 --> 00:35:54,000
Very simple.

431
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:55,840
Poor and rich.

432
00:35:56,400 --> 00:35:59,500
And here I have all the seven billions again.

433
00:35:59,500 --> 00:36:03,000
They are in a very simplified way lined up there

434
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:04,780
from the poorest to the richest.

435
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:09,739
Now, how much does the richest billion earn here

436
00:36:09,739 --> 00:36:11,519
in a dollar per day?

437
00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:12,980
Let's look here.

438
00:36:13,460 --> 00:36:16,340
Ooh, ooh, it's coming up, it's coming up.

439
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:17,900
Ooh, yo, yo, yo, yo.

440
00:36:18,019 --> 00:36:19,980
I can't even reach $100 a day.

441
00:36:21,260 --> 00:36:23,599
Then let's look at the middle billion,

442
00:36:24,039 --> 00:36:25,179
who is exactly in the middle.

443
00:36:25,380 --> 00:36:26,639
How much do they earn?

444
00:36:26,639 --> 00:36:28,539
It will come, yes, yes.

445
00:36:29,500 --> 00:36:38,820
just 10. And then I go over here to the poorest billion. How much do they get? Well, just

446
00:36:38,820 --> 00:36:46,699
one. This is the difference of the world today. And the economists, they draw a line which

447
00:36:46,699 --> 00:36:52,280
they call the line for extreme poverty, a little above $1. That's when you hardly can

448
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:57,679
have enough food to feed the family. You cannot be sure that you have food all day. And $1

449
00:36:57,679 --> 00:37:02,800
billion is clearly below that still and the second billion is sort of divided by that line

450
00:37:02,800 --> 00:37:10,179
and and then the others are above it now the poorest people they can hardly afford to buy shoes

451
00:37:10,179 --> 00:37:16,519
and when they get shoes the next thing they will save for is bicycle this is where andrea and

452
00:37:16,519 --> 00:37:23,179
olivia is and after bicycle you will go for the motorbike and then after the motorbike it's the

453
00:37:23,179 --> 00:37:30,599
car and i remember when my family got the first car it was a small gray volkswagen the first

454
00:37:30,599 --> 00:37:35,280
thing we did was to go to norway on holiday because norway is so much more beautiful than

455
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:43,139
sweden it was a fantastic trip and and now i'm i'm in this group i can go like the richest billion

456
00:37:43,139 --> 00:37:48,320
we can go on holiday by airplanes of course there are people who are much richer than the airplane

457
00:37:48,320 --> 00:37:53,539
people. Some are so rich, so they're even contemplating that they should go as tourists

458
00:37:53,539 --> 00:38:00,260
out into space. And the difference in income from the airplane people to the very richest over there

459
00:38:00,260 --> 00:38:07,320
is almost as big as it is from the airplane people here, you know, all the way down to the poorest in

460
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:15,940
that side. Now, the most important to remember from this joystick is this. And I need to show

461
00:38:15,940 --> 00:38:24,019
this i need my step ladder sometimes you need some old well-functioning technology also here

462
00:38:29,500 --> 00:38:38,380
i can only reach up here they are now i'm at the top the problem for us living on 100 a day

463
00:38:38,380 --> 00:38:44,619
is that when we look down on those who have ten dollar or one dollar they look equally poor

464
00:38:45,500 --> 00:38:46,800
We can't see the difference.

465
00:38:47,079 --> 00:38:50,739
It looks as if everyone is living on the same amount of money.

466
00:38:51,179 --> 00:38:52,480
And they say, oh, they are all poor.

467
00:38:53,179 --> 00:38:55,059
No, I can assure you,

468
00:38:55,920 --> 00:38:59,880
because I've met and talked with people who live down here,

469
00:38:59,880 --> 00:39:03,719
and I can assure you that the people down here,

470
00:39:04,159 --> 00:39:08,840
they know very well how much better life would be

471
00:39:08,840 --> 00:39:11,119
if they would move from $1 to $10,

472
00:39:11,460 --> 00:39:12,800
10 times as much income.

473
00:39:13,699 --> 00:39:15,840
This is a huge difference.

474
00:39:16,519 --> 00:39:19,199
And to understand this,

475
00:39:19,460 --> 00:39:22,559
this is what Olivia and Andre is trying to do now.

476
00:39:23,179 --> 00:39:27,320
Each little step they take along this line here,

477
00:39:27,960 --> 00:39:30,539
from the shoes towards the bicycle,

478
00:39:31,219 --> 00:39:34,280
small as it may seem from far distant,

479
00:39:34,420 --> 00:39:36,699
make a huge difference in their life.

480
00:39:36,699 --> 00:39:40,579
And if Andre and Olivia would get that bicycle,

481
00:39:40,840 --> 00:39:42,619
it would speed them along,

482
00:39:42,800 --> 00:39:50,960
to better life and better wealth up in this end today andrea and olivia are preparing to sell the

483
00:39:50,960 --> 00:40:08,800
sesame crop they've been growing for many months but andrea and olivia will have to be careful

484
00:40:08,800 --> 00:40:11,500
if they are to get paid the proper price.

485
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:38,480
Andre is going to do the selling.

486
00:40:38,800 --> 00:40:44,400
And for the last time, he hopes, he has to get help to transport the crop to market.

487
00:40:48,119 --> 00:40:51,199
Andre now needs to keep his wits about him.

488
00:40:58,199 --> 00:41:02,440
The deal is done, and Andre is happy with the price he's got.

489
00:41:08,800 --> 00:41:14,800
It's the moment the family have worked so hard for.

490
00:41:33,380 --> 00:41:37,380
Andre's journey to market took all morning to walk.

491
00:41:37,380 --> 00:41:42,380
Now, in less than an hour, he can ride home.

492
00:41:50,320 --> 00:42:06,030
The bicycle is put to use at once.

493
00:42:06,030 --> 00:42:09,289
The children fetch water with it.

494
00:42:09,289 --> 00:42:12,389
Andrea carries more crops to the market.

495
00:42:12,389 --> 00:42:18,250
And just as importantly, Olivia and Andrea can now easily reach their lessons for adults,

496
00:42:18,250 --> 00:42:40,239
so they can learn better math and how to read and write.

497
00:42:40,239 --> 00:42:46,699
It's so great to see Olivia and Andre pedaling their way out of extreme poverty.

498
00:42:46,699 --> 00:42:50,840
And they use the bicycle to go to literacy classes.

499
00:42:50,840 --> 00:42:58,920
is so important for the progress of people and nations but how many know what has really

500
00:42:58,920 --> 00:43:04,039
happened with education in the world time for the great british ignorance survey again

501
00:43:05,000 --> 00:43:11,159
here we are we asked what percent of adults in the world today are literate can read and write

502
00:43:12,280 --> 00:43:16,199
can i ask the audience how many guess 20 hands up

503
00:43:16,199 --> 00:43:39,320
40% 60% and 80% this is the result of the British sample no by now you can use the result of the

504
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:45,739
British survey to find out what the right right answer is isn't it of course it's 80% that is

505
00:43:45,739 --> 00:43:53,500
the right answer at least you were clearly better than the british average just 80 of the population

506
00:43:53,500 --> 00:43:58,780
in the world can read and write today literacy is 80 actually the last figure is a little higher

507
00:44:00,139 --> 00:44:06,699
so if i would have compared that with the chimps again you know so it's once more you only get

508
00:44:06,699 --> 00:44:12,300
random results from the shims but you get three times as many correct answers than you get from

509
00:44:12,300 --> 00:44:21,900
the British and now the university people perhaps they know this or even worse what on earth are

510
00:44:21,900 --> 00:44:28,460
they teaching at British universities the common view about the world is outdated with several

511
00:44:28,460 --> 00:44:34,860
decades the media have missed to communicate it but perhaps this is because the world is changing

512
00:44:34,860 --> 00:44:42,179
so fast. Ladies and gentlemen, I'm going to give you my all-time favorite graph. I'm going

513
00:44:42,179 --> 00:44:50,320
to show you the history of 200 countries during 200 years in less than one minute. I have

514
00:44:50,320 --> 00:44:59,840
an axis for income. I have an axis for lifespan. I start in 1800, and there are all the countries.

515
00:44:59,840 --> 00:45:04,059
And back in 1800, everyone was down in the poor and sick corner.

516
00:45:04,179 --> 00:45:06,619
Can you see? Low lifespan, little money.

517
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:09,460
And here comes the effect of the Industrial Revolution.

518
00:45:09,820 --> 00:45:13,360
Of course, the countries in West Europe, they are coming to better wealth,

519
00:45:13,519 --> 00:45:15,500
but they are not getting much healthier in the beginning.

520
00:45:15,760 --> 00:45:19,260
And those under colonial domination doesn't benefit anything in there.

521
00:45:19,420 --> 00:45:21,380
They remain there in the sick and poor corner.

522
00:45:21,579 --> 00:45:24,679
And now health is improving, health is slowly improving here.

523
00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:27,539
It's getting up here, and we are coming into the new century

524
00:45:27,539 --> 00:45:29,219
and the terrible First World War.

525
00:45:29,219 --> 00:45:36,619
and then the economic recession after that and then the second world war and now independence

526
00:45:36,619 --> 00:45:41,659
and with independence health is improving faster than it ever did in other countries here

527
00:45:41,659 --> 00:45:47,900
and now starts the fast economic catch-up of china and other latin american countries they

528
00:45:47,900 --> 00:45:53,280
come on here you know and india is following there and the african countries is also following

529
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,239
It's an amazing change that has happened in the world.

530
00:45:56,760 --> 00:46:01,159
You know, in the front here, we have now U.S. and U.K.

531
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:03,159
But they're not moving so fast any longer.

532
00:46:03,500 --> 00:46:05,659
The fast movers are here in the middle.

533
00:46:06,039 --> 00:46:08,039
China is moving very fast to catch up.

534
00:46:08,400 --> 00:46:12,460
And Bangladesh, look, Bangladesh is already here, now quite healthy,

535
00:46:12,820 --> 00:46:15,139
and now starting with fast economic growth.

536
00:46:15,239 --> 00:46:17,539
And Mozambique, yes, Mozambique is back there,

537
00:46:17,780 --> 00:46:20,440
but they are now moving fast in the right direction.

538
00:46:20,440 --> 00:46:24,599
But all this I show you is country averages.

539
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:27,000
What about people?

540
00:46:27,420 --> 00:46:29,960
Have people also got a better life?

541
00:46:30,380 --> 00:46:32,079
I'm now going to show you something

542
00:46:32,079 --> 00:46:34,599
which makes me very excited as a statistician.

543
00:46:34,820 --> 00:46:36,780
I'm going to show you income distribution,

544
00:46:37,159 --> 00:46:38,500
the difference between people.

545
00:46:39,019 --> 00:46:42,519
And to do that, I take the bubbles back 50 years,

546
00:46:42,739 --> 00:46:45,719
and then we are going to look only at money.

547
00:46:46,059 --> 00:46:49,380
And to do that, we have to expand and adjust the axis

548
00:46:49,380 --> 00:46:52,460
because the richest is so rich and the poorest is so poor.

549
00:46:52,679 --> 00:46:55,320
So there will be a bigger difference than between the countries.

550
00:46:55,739 --> 00:46:59,480
And what we do now is that we let the country fall down here,

551
00:46:59,559 --> 00:47:00,619
this is United States,

552
00:47:00,760 --> 00:47:03,539
and spread to show the range within the country.

553
00:47:03,820 --> 00:47:06,639
And I take down all the countries in the Americas.

554
00:47:07,019 --> 00:47:10,719
And now you can see from the richest person to the poorest person.

555
00:47:11,000 --> 00:47:15,260
And the height here shows you how many there are on each income level.

556
00:47:15,619 --> 00:47:17,480
And now let's take down Europe.

557
00:47:17,480 --> 00:47:21,699
and on top of that I'm going to put Africa

558
00:47:21,699 --> 00:47:26,400
and finally the region with most people

559
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:28,239
on top of everything, Asia.

560
00:47:30,440 --> 00:47:36,159
Now, in 1963, the world was constituted by two humps.

561
00:47:37,199 --> 00:47:38,699
First, the richest hump.

562
00:47:38,739 --> 00:47:40,019
It's like a camel, isn't it?

563
00:47:40,179 --> 00:47:42,260
The first hump here with the richest

564
00:47:42,260 --> 00:47:44,119
is mainly Europe and the Americas

565
00:47:44,119 --> 00:47:49,179
And the poorest hump over here is mainly Asia and Africa.

566
00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:51,719
And the poverty line was there.

567
00:47:52,460 --> 00:47:57,699
Can you see how many people there were in extreme poverty 50 years ago?

568
00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:00,139
And most of them were in Asia.

569
00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:03,300
And people were saying Asia will never get out of poverty.

570
00:48:03,440 --> 00:48:06,159
Except that some people are still saying about Africa today.

571
00:48:06,699 --> 00:48:07,960
Now, what has happened?

572
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:09,539
I start the world.

573
00:48:09,900 --> 00:48:13,099
And you can see that many people are born into poverty here.

574
00:48:13,099 --> 00:48:19,380
but Asia goes towards higher income and one billion goes out of extreme poverty this way

575
00:48:19,380 --> 00:48:26,559
and the whole shape of the world change and the camel is dead it's reborn as a dromedary

576
00:48:26,559 --> 00:48:35,500
and what you can see here you know is the variation from the richest that is most people

577
00:48:35,500 --> 00:48:41,059
in the middle and there's a much smaller proportion of the world now in extreme poverty

578
00:48:41,059 --> 00:48:46,460
But be careful. It's still a lot of people, more than one billion people in extreme poverty.

579
00:48:47,099 --> 00:48:56,659
Now the question is, can this move out of extreme poverty now continue for those in Africa and even for the new billions in Africa?

580
00:48:59,829 --> 00:49:06,809
I think it's possible, even probable, that most countries in Africa will rise out of poverty too.

581
00:49:07,369 --> 00:49:12,369
It will need wise action and huge investment, but it can happen.

582
00:49:13,590 --> 00:49:19,590
The many countries of Africa are not all advancing at the same pace.

583
00:49:19,590 --> 00:49:24,590
A few are moving very fast, others are stuck in conflict.

584
00:49:24,590 --> 00:49:28,590
But most, like Mozambique, are now making steady progress.

585
00:49:30,590 --> 00:49:35,590
And what about feeding all the new African people in the future?

586
00:49:35,590 --> 00:49:38,590
Yes, there are shortages today.

587
00:49:38,590 --> 00:49:41,590
But there is also much potential here.

588
00:49:41,590 --> 00:49:48,590
Agricultural yields in Africa are just a fraction of what they could be with better technology.

589
00:49:48,590 --> 00:49:57,139
And Africa's rivers are barely tapped for irrigation.

590
00:49:57,139 --> 00:50:06,139
One day, Africa could hum with combined harvesters and tractors and grow food for many more billions.

591
00:50:06,139 --> 00:50:11,139
And please, don't imagine it's just me who thinks Africa can make it.

592
00:50:11,139 --> 00:50:16,380
The United Nations is about to set itself a new official goal,

593
00:50:16,780 --> 00:50:20,420
eliminating extreme poverty within 20 years.

594
00:50:21,239 --> 00:50:23,400
Everyone understands it's a huge challenge,

595
00:50:23,659 --> 00:50:26,000
but I seriously believe it's possible.

596
00:50:28,159 --> 00:50:29,980
Imagine if that would happen.

597
00:50:30,480 --> 00:50:35,139
Now, what we have seen so far is that the rich end, it moves,

598
00:50:35,960 --> 00:50:38,139
and the middle, it moves.

599
00:50:38,139 --> 00:50:41,260
But this poorest end is stuck.

600
00:50:42,400 --> 00:50:47,059
It's here in extreme poverty we find almost all the illiteracy.

601
00:50:47,400 --> 00:50:51,659
Here we find high child mortality and still many babies born per woman.

602
00:50:52,119 --> 00:50:58,820
It's like extreme poverty reproduces itself if you don't end it swiftly.

603
00:50:59,559 --> 00:51:05,239
But Andrea and Olivia and people like them, they work so hard to get away from it.

604
00:51:05,239 --> 00:51:21,019
And if they only can get the right help from their government and from the world at large with things like school, health, vaccines, roads, electricity, contraceptives, then they will manage.

605
00:51:21,139 --> 00:51:25,039
But they will mainly manage by their own hard work.

606
00:51:25,860 --> 00:51:31,820
Here we go, you know, go on, follow Andrea and Olivia across the line, you know.

607
00:51:31,820 --> 00:51:36,119
It is possible within some decades, yes.

608
00:51:37,019 --> 00:51:40,860
But getting out of poverty is just the beginning.

609
00:51:41,579 --> 00:51:46,400
People want to continue along this line to a good life.

610
00:51:47,079 --> 00:51:48,699
But what does a good life mean?

611
00:51:50,679 --> 00:51:54,699
For most people in the world, the good life they are striving for

612
00:51:54,699 --> 00:51:57,980
will mean more machines and much more use of energy.

613
00:51:57,980 --> 00:52:04,239
So there's a problem, because all this adds to one of the great threats for the future,

614
00:52:04,639 --> 00:52:06,320
severe climate change.

615
00:52:07,480 --> 00:52:11,920
80% of the energy the world uses is still fossil fuels.

616
00:52:12,719 --> 00:52:17,380
And the science shows that the climate may change dramatically in the future

617
00:52:17,380 --> 00:52:23,960
because of the carbon dioxide emission from continuing to burn all these fossil fuels.

618
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:31,329
I'm not the best person to tell you how bad climate change will be.

619
00:52:31,769 --> 00:52:34,530
Nor am I a specialist on how to prevent it.

620
00:52:34,889 --> 00:52:38,650
What I can do is to show you data to make you understand

621
00:52:38,650 --> 00:52:41,869
who is the one that emits the carbon dioxide.

622
00:52:42,630 --> 00:52:43,869
I will show this.

623
00:52:44,670 --> 00:52:45,750
You remember?

624
00:52:46,309 --> 00:52:49,349
The yardstick from the poorest billion to the richest billion.

625
00:52:49,809 --> 00:52:53,630
From the one who hardly can afford shoes to the one who fly with airplanes.

626
00:52:53,630 --> 00:53:02,630
Now, this shows the total amount of fossil fuel used in the world during one year.

627
00:53:02,630 --> 00:53:05,630
Coal, oil, and natural gas.

628
00:53:05,630 --> 00:53:09,630
And it represents more or less the total emission of carbon dioxide.

629
00:53:09,630 --> 00:53:12,630
Now, how much of that is used by the richest billion?

630
00:53:14,630 --> 00:53:15,630
Half of it.

631
00:53:16,630 --> 00:53:18,630
Now, the second richest billion?

632
00:53:19,630 --> 00:53:21,630
Half of what's left.

633
00:53:21,630 --> 00:53:28,230
Then you understand what the third use, half of what left, and the others use hardly anything.

634
00:53:28,789 --> 00:53:37,949
This is rounded numbers, but it clearly shows, you know, that almost all the fossil fuel is used here by the one, two, three richest billions.

635
00:53:38,550 --> 00:53:40,349
More than 85% they use.

636
00:53:40,670 --> 00:53:47,789
Now, the richest billion here at least have stopped increasing, but we are yet to see whether they will decrease.

637
00:53:48,550 --> 00:53:52,849
And in the coming decades, it's the economic growth of these two

638
00:53:52,849 --> 00:53:57,570
that will increase the fossil fuel use and the carbon dioxide emission.

639
00:53:57,869 --> 00:54:01,349
Even if these ones over here come out of extreme poverty

640
00:54:01,349 --> 00:54:03,610
and get richer all the way to the motorbike,

641
00:54:03,849 --> 00:54:07,570
that doesn't contribute much to the emission of carbon dioxide.

642
00:54:08,210 --> 00:54:10,090
And regarding population growth,

643
00:54:10,090 --> 00:54:14,949
most of the additional billions in the next 40 years will be in this group here.

644
00:54:14,949 --> 00:54:20,110
But still, if you ask people in the richest end, they seem to get everything wrong.

645
00:54:20,670 --> 00:54:24,769
They look down on the world from their very high emission and then they say,

646
00:54:25,190 --> 00:54:28,550
oh, those over there, you cannot live like us.

647
00:54:28,769 --> 00:54:30,309
You will destroy the planet.

648
00:54:31,650 --> 00:54:37,730
You see, I find the argument from the people here catching up to be much more correct than logic.

649
00:54:38,309 --> 00:54:42,750
They say, huh, who are you to tell us that we can't live like you?

650
00:54:42,750 --> 00:54:47,409
You better change first if you want us to do it differently.

651
00:54:50,570 --> 00:54:56,170
There are many essentials to having a good life that billions in the world do not yet have.

652
00:54:56,750 --> 00:55:01,750
Andres' village and house, and so many like them, don't even have electricity.

653
00:55:03,889 --> 00:55:06,250
Mozambique has huge coal reserves.

654
00:55:06,250 --> 00:55:11,250
And if it and the other poorest countries build affordable new power stations,

655
00:55:11,250 --> 00:55:14,250
burning coal for electricity and industry,

656
00:55:14,250 --> 00:55:19,250
I don't think anyone who emits more carbon should interfere.

657
00:55:19,250 --> 00:55:23,250
Now, what I'm going to do is ask you two questions

658
00:55:23,250 --> 00:55:26,250
that I often ask my Swedish students.

659
00:55:26,250 --> 00:55:28,250
The first one is this.

660
00:55:28,250 --> 00:55:33,250
How many of you have not traveled by an airplane this year?

661
00:55:33,250 --> 00:55:35,250
Uh-huh.

662
00:55:35,250 --> 00:55:42,369
quite a few can do without flying so the next question is how many of you have stayed away

663
00:55:42,369 --> 00:55:49,369
from washing machines and you have hand washed all bed sheets clothes and laundry during the last year

664
00:55:49,369 --> 00:55:57,949
i thought so no one everyone who can afford use washing machine even the hardcore in the

665
00:55:57,949 --> 00:56:03,750
environmental movement and i still remember the day when my family got the washing machine

666
00:56:03,750 --> 00:56:07,050
It was the 1st of November, 1952.

667
00:56:07,750 --> 00:56:11,329
Grandma was invited to be the first to load the machine.

668
00:56:11,690 --> 00:56:15,230
She had hand-washed her entire life for a family of nine.

669
00:56:15,710 --> 00:56:19,829
And when she loaded the machine, she sat down on a footstool

670
00:56:19,829 --> 00:56:23,909
and she watched the entire program during one hour.

671
00:56:24,409 --> 00:56:26,230
She was absolutely mesmerized.

672
00:56:26,789 --> 00:56:32,309
For my mother, it also meant a lot of more free time to do other things.

673
00:56:32,929 --> 00:56:34,289
She could read books for me.

674
00:56:34,489 --> 00:56:36,090
I think that's what made me professor.

675
00:56:37,329 --> 00:56:38,969
No wonder we said,

676
00:56:39,409 --> 00:56:40,869
thank you, steel mill.

677
00:56:41,110 --> 00:56:43,190
Thank you, washing powder factory.

678
00:56:43,550 --> 00:56:45,550
Thank you, electrical power station.

679
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:53,980
Now, when thinking about where all this leave us,

680
00:56:53,980 --> 00:56:57,300
I have just one little humble advice to you.

681
00:56:57,619 --> 00:57:00,039
Beside everything else, look at the data.

682
00:57:01,179 --> 00:57:02,960
Look at the facts about the world.

683
00:57:02,960 --> 00:57:05,340
and you will see where we are today

684
00:57:05,340 --> 00:57:07,920
and how we can move forwards

685
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:10,880
with all these billions on our wonderful planet.

686
00:57:12,460 --> 00:57:14,739
The challenge of extreme poverty

687
00:57:14,739 --> 00:57:16,340
have been greatly reduced

688
00:57:16,340 --> 00:57:18,519
and it's for the first time in history

689
00:57:18,519 --> 00:57:21,280
within our power to end it for good.

690
00:57:22,659 --> 00:57:25,079
The challenge of population growth

691
00:57:25,079 --> 00:57:27,780
is in fact already being solved.

692
00:57:27,780 --> 00:57:30,019
The number of children have stopped growing.

693
00:57:30,019 --> 00:57:36,500
And for the challenge of climate change, we can still avoid the worst.

694
00:57:37,760 --> 00:57:44,079
But that requires that the richest, as soon as possible,

695
00:57:44,699 --> 00:57:50,320
find a way to set their use of resources and energy at a level

696
00:57:50,320 --> 00:57:56,739
that step by step can be shared by 10 billions or 11 billions by the end of this century.

697
00:57:57,480 --> 00:58:00,880
I've never called myself an optimist.

698
00:58:01,340 --> 00:58:08,260
But I do say I'm a possibilities and I also say the world is much better than many of you think

699
00:58:08,659 --> 00:58:10,659
Thank you very much