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Hi, I'm Kaylee, and my friends and I are concerned about the hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean.

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We have a trip planned to SeaWorld that we don't want to miss,

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so we need to learn more about how to predict when a hurricane will strike land.

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Well, you've come to the right place.

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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration began in 1970

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to help track and predict weather and weather patterns.

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We learned that to make a prediction, you sometimes use information you already have.

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Do you ever use the tracks of past storms?

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Yes. In short terms, such as days or hours, a storm's track may be influenced by a preceding one.

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A hurricane churns the ocean as it moves over the ocean's surface,

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bringing cold water from the bottom to the top.

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Oh, I get it. We learned that a storm needs warm water for energy,

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so if the water on the surface is cold, the storm won't be able to grow as big.

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That's correct. You've definitely done your research.

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We use computers to show us the track of hurricanes we've taken in the past

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as a guide to show us where the current storm may go.

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Historical records of hurricanes go back to about 1492, the time of Christopher Columbus.

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In analyzing the data, scientists have found that every 10 to 30 years,

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hurricanes appear to come in different numbers.

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This is called the decadal scale.

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Scientists study this record so that they can figure out where we are in the cycle.

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On average, the Atlantic Ocean has about six hurricanes per season.

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Wow, that's a lot of hurricanes.

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Yes, it is. And fortunately, not all of them become strong storms.

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Some of them don't even make landfall.

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We're wondering if a high-pressure system could prevent hurricanes from falling on land.

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It is possible. Think of a hurricane as a block of wood floating in a river.

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Where the river's currents go, so goes the block of wood.

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A hurricane is a storm in a river of air, which moves around the globe.

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The currents in this river of air are replaced by areas of high and low pressure.

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Since air circulates clockwise around a high-pressure system,

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a storm approaching it might be turned to the north or northwest.

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If the hurricane does make land, how much land will be affected?

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It depends on the size of the storm.

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Most storms are about the size of a state, 200 to 300 miles across.

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However, in the Pacific Ocean, there are monster storms reaching 1,000 miles in diameter.

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Why are they so much bigger than those in the Atlantic Ocean?

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The Pacific Ocean is the largest ocean,

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so there's a lot more warm water for them to move over, feeding their growth.

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Is there more damage on one side of the storm versus the other?

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Yes. A hurricane is strongest on its right-front quadrant because it rotates counterclockwise,

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and the speed of a hurricane must be added to its wind speed.

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So the right-front quadrant is moving faster toward you.

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I don't think we want to be on that side of the storm for sure.

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Thanks, Ms. Minnelli. This helps a lot.

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Anytime. Good luck with your project.

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Thanks so much. Bye.