1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:17,010 I want you to reimagine how life is organized on Earth. 2 00:00:18,809 --> 00:00:22,269 Think of the planet like a human body that we inhabit. 3 00:00:23,910 --> 00:00:28,589 The skeleton is the transportation system of roads and railways, 4 00:00:28,589 --> 00:00:31,289 bridges and tunnels, air and seaports 5 00:00:31,289 --> 00:00:34,350 that enable our mobility across the continents. 6 00:00:34,350 --> 00:00:37,750 the vascular system that powers the body 7 00:00:37,750 --> 00:00:40,990 or the oil and gas pipelines and electricity grids 8 00:00:40,990 --> 00:00:42,009 that distribute energy, 9 00:00:42,710 --> 00:00:44,829 and the nervous system of communications 10 00:00:44,829 --> 00:00:49,409 is the internet cables, satellites, cellular networks, 11 00:00:49,570 --> 00:00:52,390 and data centers that allow us to share information. 12 00:00:53,390 --> 00:00:56,909 This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix 13 00:00:56,909 --> 00:01:02,310 already consists of 64 million kilometers of roads, 14 00:01:02,990 --> 00:01:05,209 four million kilometers of railways, 15 00:01:05,930 --> 00:01:07,790 two million kilometers of pipelines, 16 00:01:08,530 --> 00:01:11,969 and one million kilometers of internet cables. 17 00:01:12,930 --> 00:01:15,230 What about international borders? 18 00:01:16,609 --> 00:01:20,209 We have less than 500,000 kilometers of borders. 19 00:01:21,489 --> 00:01:23,730 Let's build a better map of the world. 20 00:01:24,730 --> 00:01:27,730 And we can start by overcoming some ancient mythology. 21 00:01:28,969 --> 00:01:31,950 There's a saying with which all students of history are familiar. 22 00:01:33,230 --> 00:01:35,969 Geography is destiny. 23 00:01:35,989 --> 00:01:38,170 Sounds so grave, doesn't it? 24 00:01:38,189 --> 00:01:40,510 It's such a fatalistic adage. 25 00:01:40,530 --> 00:01:44,689 It tells us that landlocked countries are condemned to be poor, 26 00:01:44,709 --> 00:01:47,930 that small countries cannot escape their larger neighbors, 27 00:01:47,950 --> 00:01:50,870 that vast distances are insurmountable. 28 00:01:51,930 --> 00:01:55,489 But every journey I take around the world, 29 00:01:55,510 --> 00:01:59,030 I see an even greater force sweeping the planet. 30 00:02:00,049 --> 00:02:01,250 Connectivity. 31 00:02:01,250 --> 00:02:05,810 The global connectivity revolution in all of its forms, 32 00:02:05,969 --> 00:02:07,750 transportation, energy and communications, 33 00:02:08,409 --> 00:02:12,569 has enabled such a quantum leap in the mobility of people, 34 00:02:13,030 --> 00:02:14,909 of goods, of resources, of knowledge, 35 00:02:15,650 --> 00:02:20,050 such that we can no longer even think of geography as distinct from it. 36 00:02:20,849 --> 00:02:24,629 In fact, I view the two forces as fusing together 37 00:02:24,629 --> 00:02:26,770 into what I call connectography. 38 00:02:26,770 --> 00:02:31,969 Connectography represents a quantum leap 39 00:02:31,969 --> 00:02:35,050 in the mobility of people, resources, ideas. 40 00:02:35,490 --> 00:02:37,210 But it is an evolution. 41 00:02:38,110 --> 00:02:41,210 An evolution of the world 42 00:02:41,210 --> 00:02:43,750 from political geography, 43 00:02:44,469 --> 00:02:47,189 which is how we legally divide the world, 44 00:02:47,770 --> 00:02:49,789 to functional geography, 45 00:02:50,250 --> 00:02:52,370 which is how we actually use the world, 46 00:02:52,370 --> 00:02:56,849 from nations and borders to infrastructure and supply chains. 47 00:02:57,530 --> 00:02:59,930 Our global system is evolving 48 00:02:59,930 --> 00:03:04,229 from the vertically integrated empires of the 19th century 49 00:03:04,229 --> 00:03:08,710 through the horizontally interdependent nations of the 20th century 50 00:03:08,710 --> 00:03:14,289 into a global network civilization in the 21st century. 51 00:03:15,389 --> 00:03:17,949 Connectivity, not sovereignty, 52 00:03:17,949 --> 00:03:22,229 has become the organizing principle of the human species. 53 00:03:27,550 --> 00:03:30,689 We are becoming this global network civilization 54 00:03:30,710 --> 00:03:33,530 because we are literally building it. 55 00:03:33,550 --> 00:03:37,250 All of the world's defense budgets and military spending taken together 56 00:03:37,270 --> 00:03:40,370 total just under two trillion dollars per year. 57 00:03:40,389 --> 00:03:42,770 Meanwhile, our global infrastructure spending 58 00:03:42,789 --> 00:03:46,169 is projected to rise to nine trillion dollars per year 59 00:03:46,189 --> 00:03:47,689 within the coming decade. 60 00:03:47,710 --> 00:03:49,409 And, well, it should. 61 00:03:49,430 --> 00:03:52,090 We have been living off an infrastructure stock 62 00:03:52,110 --> 00:03:55,650 meant for a world population of three billion, 63 00:03:55,650 --> 00:03:58,750 as our population has crossed seven billion to eight billion 64 00:03:58,770 --> 00:04:01,270 and eventually nine billion and more. 65 00:04:01,289 --> 00:04:02,830 As a rule of thumb, 66 00:04:02,849 --> 00:04:05,990 we should spend about one trillion dollars 67 00:04:06,009 --> 00:04:10,370 on the basic infrastructure needs of every billion people in the world. 68 00:04:11,370 --> 00:04:14,409 Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead. 69 00:04:15,330 --> 00:04:21,870 In 2015, China announced the creation of the Asia Infrastructure and Investment Bank, 70 00:04:21,889 --> 00:04:25,050 which, together with a network of other organizations, 71 00:04:25,050 --> 00:04:28,509 aims to construct a network of iron-silk roads 72 00:04:28,529 --> 00:04:30,730 stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon. 73 00:04:31,689 --> 00:04:35,790 And as all of this topographical engineering unfolds, 74 00:04:35,810 --> 00:04:41,310 we will likely spend more on infrastructure in the next 40 years. 75 00:04:41,329 --> 00:04:44,670 We will build more infrastructure in the next 40 years 76 00:04:44,689 --> 00:04:47,449 than we have in the past 4,000 years. 77 00:04:48,810 --> 00:04:51,589 Now, let's stop and think about it for a minute. 78 00:04:51,589 --> 00:04:56,410 Spending so much more on building the foundations of global society 79 00:04:56,430 --> 00:04:59,170 rather than on the tools to destroy it 80 00:04:59,189 --> 00:05:01,810 can have profound consequences. 81 00:05:01,829 --> 00:05:05,490 Connectivity is how we optimize the distribution of people 82 00:05:05,509 --> 00:05:07,490 and resources around the world. 83 00:05:07,509 --> 00:05:11,709 It is how mankind comes to be more than just the sum of its parts. 84 00:05:12,910 --> 00:05:15,509 I believe that is what is happening. 85 00:05:17,029 --> 00:05:20,949 Connectivity has a twin megatrend in the 21st century. 86 00:05:20,949 --> 00:05:23,029 Planetary urbanization. 87 00:05:24,029 --> 00:05:27,829 Cities are the infrastructures that most define us. 88 00:05:27,850 --> 00:05:32,329 By 2030, more than two-thirds of the world's population will live in cities. 89 00:05:32,350 --> 00:05:35,129 And these are not mere little dots on the map, 90 00:05:35,149 --> 00:05:39,389 but they are vast archipelagos stretching hundreds of kilometers. 91 00:05:39,410 --> 00:05:40,949 Here we are in Vancouver, 92 00:05:40,970 --> 00:05:42,889 at the head of the Cascadia Corridor 93 00:05:42,910 --> 00:05:45,810 that stretches south across the US border to Seattle. 94 00:05:46,649 --> 00:05:49,009 The technology powerhouse of Silicon Valley 95 00:05:49,009 --> 00:05:51,829 begins north of San Francisco, down to San Jose, 96 00:05:51,850 --> 00:05:53,649 and across the Bay to Oakland. 97 00:05:53,670 --> 00:05:56,670 The sprawl of Los Angeles now passes San Diego 98 00:05:56,689 --> 00:05:58,990 across the Mexican border to Tijuana. 99 00:05:59,009 --> 00:06:01,910 San Diego and Tijuana now share an airport terminal, 100 00:06:01,930 --> 00:06:04,149 where you can exit into either country. 101 00:06:04,170 --> 00:06:08,470 Eventually, a high-speed rail network may connect the entire Pacific Spine. 102 00:06:09,709 --> 00:06:12,129 America's northeastern megalopolis 103 00:06:12,149 --> 00:06:15,629 begins in Boston through New York and Philadelphia to Washington. 104 00:06:15,649 --> 00:06:17,829 It contains more than 50 million people 105 00:06:17,829 --> 00:06:20,649 and also has plans for a high-speed rail network. 106 00:06:20,670 --> 00:06:25,290 But Asia is where we really see the megacities coming together. 107 00:06:25,310 --> 00:06:29,569 This continuous strip of light from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka 108 00:06:29,589 --> 00:06:34,230 contains more than 80 million people and most of Japan's economy. 109 00:06:34,250 --> 00:06:37,170 It is the world's largest megacity. 110 00:06:37,189 --> 00:06:38,810 For now. 111 00:06:38,829 --> 00:06:41,329 But in China, megacity clusters are coming together 112 00:06:41,350 --> 00:06:44,329 with populations reaching 100 million people. 113 00:06:44,350 --> 00:06:46,209 The Bohai Rim around Beijing, 114 00:06:46,209 --> 00:06:48,509 the Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai 115 00:06:48,529 --> 00:06:50,430 and the Pearl River Delta, 116 00:06:50,449 --> 00:06:52,790 stretching from Hong Kong north to Guangzhou. 117 00:06:52,810 --> 00:06:54,110 And in the middle, 118 00:06:54,129 --> 00:06:57,069 the Chongqing-Changdu megacity cluster, 119 00:06:57,089 --> 00:06:59,870 whose geographic footprint is almost the same size 120 00:06:59,889 --> 00:07:01,689 as the country of Austria. 121 00:07:03,329 --> 00:07:05,269 And any number of these megacity clusters 122 00:07:05,290 --> 00:07:08,310 has a GDP approaching two trillion dollars. 123 00:07:08,329 --> 00:07:11,610 That's almost the same as all of India today. 124 00:07:11,629 --> 00:07:15,629 So imagine if our global diplomatic institutions, 125 00:07:15,629 --> 00:07:17,189 such as the G20, 126 00:07:17,209 --> 00:07:20,769 were to base their membership on economic size 127 00:07:20,790 --> 00:07:23,310 rather than national representation. 128 00:07:23,329 --> 00:07:26,889 Some Chinese megacities may be in and have a seat at the table, 129 00:07:26,910 --> 00:07:31,050 while entire countries like Argentina or Indonesia would be out, 130 00:07:32,129 --> 00:07:33,290 moving to India, 131 00:07:33,310 --> 00:07:35,810 whose population will soon exceed that of China. 132 00:07:35,829 --> 00:07:38,129 It too has a number of megacity clusters, 133 00:07:38,149 --> 00:07:42,050 such as the Delhi capital region and Mumbai. 134 00:07:42,050 --> 00:07:46,430 In the Middle East, Greater Tehran is absorbing one third of Iran's population. 135 00:07:46,449 --> 00:07:48,310 Most of Egypt's 80 million people 136 00:07:48,329 --> 00:07:51,370 live in the corridor between Cairo and Alexandria. 137 00:07:51,389 --> 00:07:52,949 And in the Gulf, 138 00:07:52,970 --> 00:07:55,389 a necklace of city-states is forming, 139 00:07:55,410 --> 00:07:56,910 from Bahrain and Qatar 140 00:07:56,930 --> 00:07:59,649 through the United Arab Emirates to Muscat in Oman. 141 00:08:00,569 --> 00:08:02,810 And then there's Lagos, 142 00:08:02,829 --> 00:08:06,689 Africa's largest city and Nigeria's commercial hub. 143 00:08:06,709 --> 00:08:08,790 It has plans for a rail network 144 00:08:08,790 --> 00:08:13,170 that will make it the anchor of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor 145 00:08:13,189 --> 00:08:16,250 stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana 146 00:08:16,269 --> 00:08:19,730 to Abidjan, the capital of the Ivory Coast. 147 00:08:19,750 --> 00:08:24,009 But these countries are suburbs of Lagos. 148 00:08:24,029 --> 00:08:30,649 In a megacity world, countries can be suburbs of cities. 149 00:08:30,670 --> 00:08:37,409 By 2030, we will have as many as 50 such megacity clusters in the world. 150 00:08:37,429 --> 00:08:39,289 So which map tells you more? 151 00:08:39,289 --> 00:08:42,429 our traditional map of 200 discrete nations 152 00:08:42,450 --> 00:08:44,350 that hang on most of our walls, 153 00:08:44,370 --> 00:08:47,450 or this map of the 50 megacity clusters. 154 00:08:48,210 --> 00:08:50,950 And yet even this is incomplete, 155 00:08:50,970 --> 00:08:54,950 because you cannot understand any individual megacity 156 00:08:54,970 --> 00:08:58,009 without understanding its connections to the others. 157 00:08:58,929 --> 00:09:01,269 People move to cities to be connected, 158 00:09:01,289 --> 00:09:04,529 and connectivity is why these cities thrive. 159 00:09:05,370 --> 00:09:09,029 Any number of them, such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow, 160 00:09:09,029 --> 00:09:13,090 has a GDP approaching or exceeding one-third to one-half 161 00:09:13,110 --> 00:09:15,269 of their entire national GDP. 162 00:09:16,149 --> 00:09:17,889 But equally importantly, 163 00:09:17,909 --> 00:09:20,769 you cannot calculate any of their individual value 164 00:09:20,789 --> 00:09:24,450 without understanding the role of the flows of people, 165 00:09:24,470 --> 00:09:26,210 of finance, of technology, 166 00:09:26,230 --> 00:09:27,830 that enable them to thrive. 167 00:09:28,669 --> 00:09:31,370 Take the Gauteng province of South Africa, 168 00:09:31,389 --> 00:09:34,549 which contains Johannesburg and the capital Pretoria. 169 00:09:34,570 --> 00:09:38,509 It too represents just over a third of South Africa's GDP. 170 00:09:38,509 --> 00:09:40,289 But equally importantly, 171 00:09:40,309 --> 00:09:44,769 it is home to the offices of almost every single multinational corporation 172 00:09:44,789 --> 00:09:47,009 that invests directly into South Africa 173 00:09:47,029 --> 00:09:49,509 and indeed into the entire African continent. 174 00:09:50,750 --> 00:09:54,409 Cities want to be part of global value chains. 175 00:09:54,429 --> 00:09:57,990 They want to be part of this global division of labor. 176 00:09:58,009 --> 00:09:59,830 That is how cities think. 177 00:10:00,710 --> 00:10:02,570 I've never met a mayor who said to me, 178 00:10:02,590 --> 00:10:04,110 I want my city to be cut off. 179 00:10:04,870 --> 00:10:07,970 They know that their cities belong as much 180 00:10:07,970 --> 00:10:12,509 to the global network civilization as to their home countries. 181 00:10:14,750 --> 00:10:18,149 Now, for many people, urbanization causes great dismay. 182 00:10:18,950 --> 00:10:20,950 They think cities are wrecking the planet. 183 00:10:21,870 --> 00:10:26,909 But right now, there are more than 200 intercity learning networks thriving. 184 00:10:27,470 --> 00:10:31,450 That is, as many as the number of intergovernmental organizations that we have. 185 00:10:31,450 --> 00:10:35,990 And all of these intercity networks are devoted to one purpose, 186 00:10:35,990 --> 00:10:40,490 mankind's number one priority in the 21st century. 187 00:10:41,309 --> 00:10:43,090 Sustainable urbanization. 188 00:10:44,230 --> 00:10:45,330 Is it working? 189 00:10:46,210 --> 00:10:47,730 Let's take climate change. 190 00:10:48,269 --> 00:10:51,090 We know that summit after summit in New York and Paris 191 00:10:51,090 --> 00:10:53,610 is not going to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 192 00:10:54,429 --> 00:10:57,830 But what we can see is that transferring technology, 193 00:10:58,070 --> 00:11:00,250 knowledge and policies between cities 194 00:11:00,250 --> 00:11:04,409 is how we've actually begun to reduce the carbon intensity of our economies. 195 00:11:05,230 --> 00:11:06,870 Cities are learning from each other 196 00:11:06,870 --> 00:11:09,370 how to install zero-emissions buildings, 197 00:11:09,750 --> 00:11:12,330 how to deploy electric car-sharing systems. 198 00:11:13,049 --> 00:11:14,110 In major Chinese cities, 199 00:11:14,230 --> 00:11:16,649 they're imposing quotas on the number of cars on the streets. 200 00:11:17,309 --> 00:11:18,490 In many Western cities, 201 00:11:18,669 --> 00:11:20,590 young people don't even want to drive anymore. 202 00:11:21,909 --> 00:11:23,330 Cities have been part of the problem. 203 00:11:24,029 --> 00:11:25,769 Now they are part of the solution. 204 00:11:27,210 --> 00:11:29,490 Inequality is the other great challenge 205 00:11:29,490 --> 00:11:31,330 to achieving sustainable urbanization. 206 00:11:31,330 --> 00:11:34,690 When I travel through megacities from end to end, 207 00:11:35,350 --> 00:11:36,789 it takes hours and days, 208 00:11:37,529 --> 00:11:41,090 I experience the tragedy of extreme disparity 209 00:11:41,090 --> 00:11:43,129 within the same geography. 210 00:11:44,110 --> 00:11:47,090 And yet our global stock of financial assets 211 00:11:47,090 --> 00:11:48,250 has never been larger, 212 00:11:48,710 --> 00:11:51,730 approaching 300 trillion dollars. 213 00:11:52,049 --> 00:11:55,309 That's almost four times the actual GDP of the world. 214 00:11:56,330 --> 00:11:58,830 We have taken on such enormous debts 215 00:11:58,830 --> 00:12:00,590 since the financial crisis. 216 00:12:00,590 --> 00:12:03,990 but have we invested them in inclusive growth? 217 00:12:04,889 --> 00:12:06,629 No, not yet. 218 00:12:07,649 --> 00:12:11,289 Only when we build sufficient, affordable public housing, 219 00:12:11,669 --> 00:12:14,450 when we invest in robust transportation networks 220 00:12:14,450 --> 00:12:16,970 to allow people to connect to each other, 221 00:12:17,129 --> 00:12:18,690 both physically and digitally, 222 00:12:19,250 --> 00:12:21,629 that's when our divided cities and societies 223 00:12:21,629 --> 00:12:23,309 will come to feel whole again. 224 00:12:27,659 --> 00:12:30,759 And that is why infrastructure has just been included 225 00:12:30,759 --> 00:12:33,039 in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, 226 00:12:33,039 --> 00:12:35,200 because it enables all the others. 227 00:12:36,100 --> 00:12:38,399 Our political and economic leaders are learning 228 00:12:38,399 --> 00:12:40,419 that connectivity is not charity. 229 00:12:41,039 --> 00:12:41,899 It's opportunity. 230 00:12:43,100 --> 00:12:45,779 And that's why our financial community needs to understand 231 00:12:45,779 --> 00:12:50,480 that connectivity is the most important asset class of the 21st century. 232 00:12:52,340 --> 00:12:55,639 Now, cities can make the world more sustainable. 233 00:12:56,500 --> 00:12:58,159 They can make the world more equitable. 234 00:12:58,899 --> 00:13:01,639 I also believe that connectivity between cities 235 00:13:01,639 --> 00:13:03,200 can make the world more peaceful. 236 00:13:04,360 --> 00:13:07,899 If we look at regions of the world with dense relations across borders, 237 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:12,059 we see more trade, more investment and more stability. 238 00:13:12,559 --> 00:13:14,840 We all know the story of Europe after World War II, 239 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:17,799 where industrial integration kicked off a process 240 00:13:17,799 --> 00:13:20,240 that gave rise to today's peaceful European Union. 241 00:13:20,919 --> 00:13:23,179 And you can see that Russia, by the way, 242 00:13:23,639 --> 00:13:27,539 is the least connected of major powers in the international system. 243 00:13:27,860 --> 00:13:31,480 And that goes a long way towards explaining the tensions today. 244 00:13:32,159 --> 00:13:34,460 Countries that have less stake in the system 245 00:13:34,460 --> 00:13:37,179 also have less to lose in disturbing it. 246 00:13:38,519 --> 00:13:41,700 In North America, the lines that matter most on the map 247 00:13:41,700 --> 00:13:45,059 are not the US-Canada border or the US-Mexico border, 248 00:13:45,059 --> 00:13:48,519 but the dense network of roads and railways and pipelines 249 00:13:48,519 --> 00:13:51,299 and electricity grids and even water canals 250 00:13:51,299 --> 00:13:55,019 that are forming an integrated North American union. 251 00:13:55,679 --> 00:13:58,179 North America does not need more walls. 252 00:13:58,799 --> 00:13:59,919 It needs more connections. 253 00:14:07,879 --> 00:14:12,220 But the real promise of connectivity is in the post-colonial world, 254 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:16,539 all of those regions where borders have historically been the most arbitrary 255 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:21,139 and where generations of leaders have had hostile relations with each other. 256 00:14:21,159 --> 00:14:23,580 But now a new group of leaders has come into power 257 00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:25,740 and is burying the hatchet. 258 00:14:25,759 --> 00:14:27,539 Let's take Southeast Asia, 259 00:14:27,559 --> 00:14:31,259 where high-speed rail networks are planned to connect Bangkok to Singapore 260 00:14:31,279 --> 00:14:34,220 and trade corridors from Vietnam to Myanmar. 261 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,379 Now this region of 600 million people 262 00:14:37,379 --> 00:14:41,720 coordinates its agricultural resources and its industrial output. 263 00:14:41,740 --> 00:14:46,440 It is evolving into what I call a Pax Asiana, 264 00:14:46,460 --> 00:14:49,460 a peace among Southeast Asian nations. 265 00:14:50,100 --> 00:14:53,159 A similar phenomenon is underway in East Africa, 266 00:14:53,179 --> 00:14:56,720 where a half-dozen countries are investing in railways 267 00:14:56,740 --> 00:14:57,919 and multimodal corridors 268 00:14:57,940 --> 00:15:01,120 so that landlocked countries can get their goods to market. 269 00:15:01,139 --> 00:15:03,720 Now these countries coordinate their utilities 270 00:15:03,740 --> 00:15:05,799 and their investment policies. 271 00:15:05,799 --> 00:15:09,519 They, too, are evolving into a Pax Africana. 272 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:14,039 One region we know could especially use this kind of thinking 273 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:15,279 is the Middle East. 274 00:15:16,039 --> 00:15:18,480 As Arab states tragically collapse, 275 00:15:18,519 --> 00:15:21,200 what is left behind but the ancient cities 276 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:24,399 such as Cairo, Beirut and Baghdad? 277 00:15:24,440 --> 00:15:29,159 In fact, the nearly 400 million people of the Arab world 278 00:15:29,200 --> 00:15:31,279 are almost entirely urbanized. 279 00:15:31,320 --> 00:15:33,200 As societies, as cities, 280 00:15:33,240 --> 00:15:35,440 they are either water-rich or water-poor, 281 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:37,279 energy-rich or energy-poor. 282 00:15:38,039 --> 00:15:40,960 And the only way to correct these mismatches 283 00:15:40,980 --> 00:15:43,559 is not through more wars and more borders, 284 00:15:43,580 --> 00:15:47,399 but through more connectivity of pipelines and water canals. 285 00:15:48,059 --> 00:15:51,980 Now sadly, this is not yet the map of the Middle East. 286 00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:53,200 But it should be. 287 00:15:54,779 --> 00:15:58,659 A connected Pax Arabia, 288 00:15:58,679 --> 00:16:02,620 internally integrated and productively connected to its neighbors, 289 00:16:02,639 --> 00:16:04,659 Europe, Asia and Africa. 290 00:16:04,659 --> 00:16:07,860 Now, it may not seem that connectivity is what we want right now 291 00:16:07,879 --> 00:16:10,639 towards the world's most turbulent region, 292 00:16:10,659 --> 00:16:12,340 but we know from history 293 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:16,759 that more connectivity is the only way to bring about stability in the long run, 294 00:16:16,779 --> 00:16:19,440 because we know that in region after region, 295 00:16:19,460 --> 00:16:22,440 connectivity is the new reality. 296 00:16:22,460 --> 00:16:25,639 Cities and countries are learning to aggregate 297 00:16:25,659 --> 00:16:28,259 into more peaceful and prosperous wholes. 298 00:16:29,820 --> 00:16:32,259 But the real test is going to be Asia. 299 00:16:33,100 --> 00:16:36,039 Can connectivity overcome the patterns of rivalry 300 00:16:36,059 --> 00:16:38,600 among the great powers of the Far East? 301 00:16:38,620 --> 00:16:43,019 After all, this is where World War III is supposed to break out. 302 00:16:43,980 --> 00:16:47,080 Since the end of the Cold War, a quarter-century ago, 303 00:16:47,100 --> 00:16:50,480 at least six major wars have been predicted for this region, 304 00:16:50,500 --> 00:16:52,259 but none have broken out. 305 00:16:53,179 --> 00:16:54,820 Take China and Taiwan. 306 00:16:55,620 --> 00:17:00,200 In the 1990s, this was everyone's leading World War III scenario. 307 00:17:00,220 --> 00:17:01,740 But since that time, 308 00:17:01,740 --> 00:17:04,539 the trade and investment volumes across the Straits 309 00:17:04,559 --> 00:17:06,279 have become so intense 310 00:17:06,299 --> 00:17:10,339 that last November, leaders from both sides held a historic summit 311 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:13,339 to discuss eventual peaceful reunification. 312 00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,839 And even the election of a nationalist party in Taiwan 313 00:17:16,859 --> 00:17:19,599 that's pro-independence earlier this year 314 00:17:19,619 --> 00:17:22,220 does not undermine this fundamental dynamic. 315 00:17:23,420 --> 00:17:26,299 China and Japan have an even longer history of rivalry 316 00:17:26,319 --> 00:17:28,799 and have been deploying their air forces and navies 317 00:17:28,819 --> 00:17:31,539 to show their strength in island disputes. 318 00:17:31,539 --> 00:17:32,759 But in recent years, 319 00:17:32,779 --> 00:17:36,960 Japan has been making its largest foreign investments in China. 320 00:17:36,980 --> 00:17:40,480 Japanese cars are selling in record numbers there. 321 00:17:40,500 --> 00:17:43,400 And guess where the largest number of foreigners 322 00:17:43,420 --> 00:17:46,160 residing in Japan today comes from? 323 00:17:46,180 --> 00:17:47,400 You guessed it. 324 00:17:47,420 --> 00:17:48,619 China. 325 00:17:49,579 --> 00:17:51,359 China and India have fought a major war 326 00:17:51,380 --> 00:17:53,440 and have three outstanding border disputes. 327 00:17:53,460 --> 00:17:56,079 But today, India is the second-largest shareholder 328 00:17:56,099 --> 00:17:58,480 in the Asia Infrastructure and Investment Bank. 329 00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:01,759 They're building a trade corridor stretching from northeast India 330 00:18:01,779 --> 00:18:05,819 through Myanmar and Bangladesh to southern China. 331 00:18:06,380 --> 00:18:10,180 Their trade volume has grown from 20 billion dollars a decade ago 332 00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:12,000 to 80 billion dollars today. 333 00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:15,660 Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan have fought three wars 334 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:17,900 and continue to dispute Kashmir, 335 00:18:17,920 --> 00:18:21,460 but they're also negotiating a most favored nation trade agreement 336 00:18:21,480 --> 00:18:23,180 and want to complete a pipeline 337 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:27,200 stretching from Iran through Pakistan to India. 338 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:28,880 And let's talk about Iran. 339 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,799 Wasn't it just two years ago that war with Iran seemed inevitable? 340 00:18:33,819 --> 00:18:40,589 Then why is every single major power rushing to do business there today? 341 00:18:40,609 --> 00:18:41,829 Ladies and gentlemen, 342 00:18:41,849 --> 00:18:46,670 I cannot guarantee that World War III will not break out, 343 00:18:46,690 --> 00:18:49,670 but we can definitely see why it hasn't happened yet. 344 00:18:50,750 --> 00:18:54,430 Even though Asia is home to the world's fastest-growing militaries, 345 00:18:54,450 --> 00:18:58,029 these same countries are also investing billions of dollars 346 00:18:58,029 --> 00:19:01,009 in each other's infrastructure and supply chains. 347 00:19:01,029 --> 00:19:04,809 They are more interested in each other's functional geography 348 00:19:04,829 --> 00:19:07,329 than in their political geography. 349 00:19:07,349 --> 00:19:10,650 And that is why their leaders think twice, 350 00:19:10,670 --> 00:19:12,410 step back from the brink 351 00:19:12,430 --> 00:19:17,029 and decide to focus on economic ties over territorial tensions. 352 00:19:18,509 --> 00:19:21,809 So often, it seems like the world is falling apart, 353 00:19:21,829 --> 00:19:23,730 but building more connectivity 354 00:19:23,750 --> 00:19:27,529 is how we put Humpty Dumpty back together again, 355 00:19:27,529 --> 00:19:29,970 much better than before. 356 00:19:29,990 --> 00:19:34,690 And by wrapping the world in such seamless physical and digital connectivity, 357 00:19:34,710 --> 00:19:36,950 we evolve towards a world 358 00:19:36,970 --> 00:19:40,930 in which people can rise above their geographic constraints. 359 00:19:40,950 --> 00:19:44,130 We are the cells and vessels 360 00:19:44,150 --> 00:19:47,410 pulsing through these global connectivity networks. 361 00:19:47,430 --> 00:19:51,049 Every day, hundreds of millions of people go online 362 00:19:51,069 --> 00:19:53,750 and work with people they've never met. 363 00:19:53,769 --> 00:19:57,190 More than one billion people cross borders every year, 364 00:19:57,190 --> 00:20:01,069 and that's expected to rise to three billion in the coming decade. 365 00:20:02,230 --> 00:20:04,710 We don't just build connectivity, 366 00:20:04,730 --> 00:20:06,049 we embody it. 367 00:20:06,990 --> 00:20:10,309 We are the global network civilization, 368 00:20:10,329 --> 00:20:12,170 and this is our map. 369 00:20:13,269 --> 00:20:17,509 A map of the world in which geography is no longer destiny. 370 00:20:18,569 --> 00:20:23,410 Instead, the future has a new and more hopeful motto. 371 00:20:23,430 --> 00:20:26,049 Connectivity is destiny. 372 00:20:26,069 --> 00:20:27,150 Thank you.