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Hurricane Prediction And Weather Satellites

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Subido el 28 de mayo de 2007 por EducaMadrid

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NASA Why? Files segment explaining how weather probability is predicted and how satellites work.

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Wow, you would never think a hurricane could destroy your entire house. Yeah your house and everything in it 00:00:00
That'd be just my luck to go to Florida and get stuck in a hurricane 00:00:07
I just finished entering our notes that we took at Mosey from our problem log 00:00:10
You can download your own problem log from the NASA Wi-Fi's website 00:00:14
We have a lot of new information. I think we need to go to the problem board 00:00:17
We know the tropical depression is now a hurricane. We know that hurricanes generally move from the east to the west 00:00:22
And we know that water vapor is the primary source of energy that drives a hurricane 00:00:28
What we need to know is more about the probability that the hurricane will actually hit Florida. Where should we go? 00:00:32
Let's go talk to Dr. D. I'm sure he can help us out 00:00:39
Hi, Dr. D 00:00:44
What are you doing? Working on a tornado box work on hurricanes inspired me to start this project 00:00:46
Or tornadoes just mini hurricanes on land. Hey guys 00:00:51
You're showing them my tornado box. Oh cool 00:00:57
Tomatoes and hurricanes are different from each other 00:00:59
But it turns out they're very similar in that they're both low-pressure regions and they have counterclockwise wind patterns 00:01:02
They also both have tremendous energy. I'm concerned if the hurricane is gonna ruin our fun 00:01:08
How can we predict where we'll hit land? 00:01:13
That's one of the biggest questions a meteorologist asked to find an answer to this question. They ask such questions as 00:01:15
Where's the hurricane been? 00:01:21
They're high and low pressure systems that affect the hurricane and where the speed and directions of the steering winds steering winds 00:01:23
Yes, those are the winds that push the hurricane a lot. That's a lot of variables 00:01:30
Remember with the scientific process we have to keep track of all the variables. We're pretty good at making predictions 00:01:34
Let's see. We have a number of objects 00:01:40
I want you to pick them up one at a time and see if you can tell which ones will float. That's easy 00:01:43
I think this Apple will definitely float. I've played bobbing for apples before and I remember seeing the apples float in the bucket 00:01:47
Yep, I was right you use your previous experience make a prediction 00:01:56
Hurricane forecasters also rely upon their previous experiences. They look upon what previous hurricanes it in similar situations 00:02:00
Okay, let's try this golf ball. I think it will flip 00:02:08
Oops, it's sink. Well, try this bowling ball. I think you made this one too easy 00:02:11
It will definitely sink because it's too heavy. All right, let's see 00:02:18
Wow do it a row row, I guess you can't tell just if something will sink or flip 00:02:24
What are some other ways we can tell if something will sink or flip, you know 00:02:29
Both the mass and the volume of each object 00:02:33
If the mass of the object expressed in grams is greater than the volume expressed in milliliters 00:02:35
It will sink because it's denser than water 00:02:41
The problem with hurricanes is there are so many variables is a very complex problem 00:02:43
And even if we knew all the variables precisely, we're not quite sure how they all fit together 00:02:47
So what do they do? 00:02:52
Instead of being able to make an exact prediction all weather forecasters can do is to talk about probabilities 00:02:54
We need to learn more about probabilities. Let's look at an example 00:03:00
When we flip this coin will come up heads or tails we don't know that's right because it's a random event 00:03:06
But what's the likelihood that come up heads? I guess it'll come up heads about half the time. That's right 00:03:13
Probability says it'll come up heads about 50% of the time. Let's try it. I 00:03:19
Get heads 00:03:25
tails 00:03:27
tails 00:03:29
Another tails wait, it didn't come up heads half the time. Well, that's all right 00:03:31
It's probably says we do a lot of trials. It'll average out to be 50% Let's keep trying 00:03:36
Another heads 00:03:44
tails 00:03:46
And heads. Yes, it's looking better. I think I remember the weatherman saying last week 00:03:48
Then it was a 60% probability of rain. Does that mean it's gonna rain 60% of the day? 00:03:53
No, I think that means that if there are 10 similar days then would rain on six of them 00:03:58
I think you're catching on hurricane forecast will give the most probable landfall time and location 00:04:02
They also want to predict the strength of the hurricane the more confident 00:04:08
They are the higher the percentage of the probability, but can't some of the variables change after they make a prediction you bet 00:04:12
That's the problem 00:04:19
For example, the hurricane steering winds slow down the hurricane stalls over very warm water 00:04:20
By that only change the landfall time and my also the hurricane again is strength 00:04:25
So, how do they get the exact measurements and how many variables do they have to measure? 00:04:30
Well, hold on now weather satellites are a great tool for making predictions and tracking hurricanes 00:04:34
Why don't you talk to me to wrap at NASA Langley Research Center? Just cut an email from her 00:04:39
She's right now at the Airman Space Center in Hampton, Virginia. I don't live too far from there. I'll ask my mom to take me 00:04:43
Hi, miss wrap and thanks for meeting us. Sure. What's the problem? We need to learn more about collecting weather data 00:04:49
Yeah, we're worried about Hurricane Ichabod in the Atlantic Ocean and we want to make sure it doesn't ruin our trip to Florida 00:04:55
Well, that wouldn't be good. Well weather data is collected in many ways. But one way is by a weather satellite 00:05:02
What is a weather satellite a weather satellite is a man-made object? 00:05:07
That's put into orbit around a planet to help gather data all around the globe. It helps improve weather forecasting 00:05:11
That's just what we need how do satellites get into space 00:05:17
They're launched into orbit by rockets and sometimes even the shuttle takes them up. Okay, but how do they stay up there? 00:05:20
Why don't they fall back down the earth? 00:05:27
Satellites are held in orbit by a force called gravity here. Let's do an experiment. But first I need a ball 00:05:29
Thanks 00:05:35
Now pretend that you're the earth and the ball is a satellite and swing it around your head 00:05:37
This is cool, but satellites don't have strings attached to them, do they? No 00:05:43
Gravity is the string that holds a satellite in orbit by swinging the ball 00:05:47
You are giving it forward motion or momentum just like the rockets do for the satellites 00:05:52
If the string weren't attached to it, it would fly off in one direction 00:05:56
Oh, I get it 00:06:00
So if we didn't have gravity the satellites would fly off into space 00:06:00
Very good. And when the momentum and the gravity are equal the satellites fly off in one direction 00:06:04
The satellite stays in its orbit I saw on the NASA Langley website that they use geostationary satellites 00:06:11
But what is geostationary mean? 00:06:17
Well, if you break the word apart you have geo which means earth and stationary which means fixed at a point 00:06:19
So a geostationary satellite orbits at a speed that matches the speed of the earth's rotation 00:06:25
So it always stays over the same latitude and longitude 00:06:30
Are there other kinds of satellites? 00:06:33
Yes, there are several types of weather satellites 00:06:36
But the most common besides geostationary are the polar orbiting satellites 00:06:38
These constantly circle the earth in an almost north-south orbit 00:06:42
Why are polar orbiting satellites important? Because they cover the entire globe unlike geostationary 00:06:45
Satellites that only see the same portion of the globe all the time. How many weather satellites are there? 00:06:51
Well counting only the geostationary and polar orbiting satellites. There are about 18 00:06:56
however, there are about 00:07:01
671 satellites of all different types in space. Wow, that's a lot of satellites. They must be important 00:07:04
Yes, they are and especially weather satellites 00:07:10
They help us monitor storm development and track the movement of storms. Are they just used for hurricanes and tropical storms? 00:07:13
No, they're also used to help our local meteorologists forecast our weather 00:07:19
This helps them issue warnings for thunderstorms and hurricanes 00:07:23
We can now see that meteorologists have a lot of help collecting data from satellites 00:07:27
If you want to learn about a really cool satellite that'll be launched in the future 00:07:31
You need to go see Bill Smith. That sounds like your man 00:07:35
Thanks for your help. But first before we go, let's go check out another hurricane room 00:07:38
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Idioma/s:
en
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Autor/es:
NASA LaRC Office of Education
Subido por:
EducaMadrid
Licencia:
Reconocimiento - No comercial - Sin obra derivada
Visualizaciones:
244
Fecha:
28 de mayo de 2007 - 15:33
Visibilidad:
Público
Enlace Relacionado:
NASAs center for distance learning
Duración:
07′ 46″
Relación de aspecto:
4:3 Hasta 2009 fue el estándar utilizado en la televisión PAL; muchas pantallas de ordenador y televisores usan este estándar, erróneamente llamado cuadrado, cuando en la realidad es rectangular o wide.
Resolución:
480x360 píxeles
Tamaño:
46.62 MBytes

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