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AGENDA 2030 - Contenido educativo

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Subido el 30 de marzo de 2022 por Carmen De Los R.

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I want you to reimagine how life is organized on Earth. 00:00:00
Think of the planet like a human body that we inhabit. 00:00:18
The skeleton is the transportation system of roads and railways, 00:00:23
bridges and tunnels, air and seaports 00:00:28
that enable our mobility across the continents. 00:00:31
the vascular system that powers the body 00:00:34
or the oil and gas pipelines and electricity grids 00:00:37
that distribute energy, 00:00:40
and the nervous system of communications 00:00:42
is the internet cables, satellites, cellular networks, 00:00:44
and data centers that allow us to share information. 00:00:49
This ever-expanding infrastructural matrix 00:00:53
already consists of 64 million kilometers of roads, 00:00:56
four million kilometers of railways, 00:01:02
two million kilometers of pipelines, 00:01:05
and one million kilometers of internet cables. 00:01:08
What about international borders? 00:01:12
We have less than 500,000 kilometers of borders. 00:01:16
Let's build a better map of the world. 00:01:21
And we can start by overcoming some ancient mythology. 00:01:24
There's a saying with which all students of history are familiar. 00:01:28
Geography is destiny. 00:01:33
Sounds so grave, doesn't it? 00:01:35
It's such a fatalistic adage. 00:01:38
It tells us that landlocked countries are condemned to be poor, 00:01:40
that small countries cannot escape their larger neighbors, 00:01:44
that vast distances are insurmountable. 00:01:47
But every journey I take around the world, 00:01:51
I see an even greater force sweeping the planet. 00:01:55
Connectivity. 00:02:00
The global connectivity revolution in all of its forms, 00:02:01
transportation, energy and communications, 00:02:05
has enabled such a quantum leap in the mobility of people, 00:02:08
of goods, of resources, of knowledge, 00:02:13
such that we can no longer even think of geography as distinct from it. 00:02:15
In fact, I view the two forces as fusing together 00:02:20
into what I call connectography. 00:02:24
Connectography represents a quantum leap 00:02:26
in the mobility of people, resources, ideas. 00:02:31
But it is an evolution. 00:02:35
An evolution of the world 00:02:38
from political geography, 00:02:41
which is how we legally divide the world, 00:02:44
to functional geography, 00:02:47
which is how we actually use the world, 00:02:50
from nations and borders to infrastructure and supply chains. 00:02:52
Our global system is evolving 00:02:57
from the vertically integrated empires of the 19th century 00:02:59
through the horizontally interdependent nations of the 20th century 00:03:04
into a global network civilization in the 21st century. 00:03:08
Connectivity, not sovereignty, 00:03:15
has become the organizing principle of the human species. 00:03:17
We are becoming this global network civilization 00:03:27
because we are literally building it. 00:03:30
All of the world's defense budgets and military spending taken together 00:03:33
total just under two trillion dollars per year. 00:03:37
Meanwhile, our global infrastructure spending 00:03:40
is projected to rise to nine trillion dollars per year 00:03:42
within the coming decade. 00:03:46
And, well, it should. 00:03:47
We have been living off an infrastructure stock 00:03:49
meant for a world population of three billion, 00:03:52
as our population has crossed seven billion to eight billion 00:03:55
and eventually nine billion and more. 00:03:58
As a rule of thumb, 00:04:01
we should spend about one trillion dollars 00:04:02
on the basic infrastructure needs of every billion people in the world. 00:04:06
Not surprisingly, Asia is in the lead. 00:04:11
In 2015, China announced the creation of the Asia Infrastructure and Investment Bank, 00:04:15
which, together with a network of other organizations, 00:04:21
aims to construct a network of iron-silk roads 00:04:25
stretching from Shanghai to Lisbon. 00:04:28
And as all of this topographical engineering unfolds, 00:04:31
we will likely spend more on infrastructure in the next 40 years. 00:04:35
We will build more infrastructure in the next 40 years 00:04:41
than we have in the past 4,000 years. 00:04:44
Now, let's stop and think about it for a minute. 00:04:48
Spending so much more on building the foundations of global society 00:04:51
rather than on the tools to destroy it 00:04:56
can have profound consequences. 00:04:59
Connectivity is how we optimize the distribution of people 00:05:01
and resources around the world. 00:05:05
It is how mankind comes to be more than just the sum of its parts. 00:05:07
I believe that is what is happening. 00:05:12
Connectivity has a twin megatrend in the 21st century. 00:05:17
Planetary urbanization. 00:05:20
Cities are the infrastructures that most define us. 00:05:24
By 2030, more than two-thirds of the world's population will live in cities. 00:05:27
And these are not mere little dots on the map, 00:05:32
but they are vast archipelagos stretching hundreds of kilometers. 00:05:35
Here we are in Vancouver, 00:05:39
at the head of the Cascadia Corridor 00:05:40
that stretches south across the US border to Seattle. 00:05:42
The technology powerhouse of Silicon Valley 00:05:46
begins north of San Francisco, down to San Jose, 00:05:49
and across the Bay to Oakland. 00:05:51
The sprawl of Los Angeles now passes San Diego 00:05:53
across the Mexican border to Tijuana. 00:05:56
San Diego and Tijuana now share an airport terminal, 00:05:59
where you can exit into either country. 00:06:01
Eventually, a high-speed rail network may connect the entire Pacific Spine. 00:06:04
America's northeastern megalopolis 00:06:09
begins in Boston through New York and Philadelphia to Washington. 00:06:12
It contains more than 50 million people 00:06:15
and also has plans for a high-speed rail network. 00:06:17
But Asia is where we really see the megacities coming together. 00:06:20
This continuous strip of light from Tokyo through Nagoya to Osaka 00:06:25
contains more than 80 million people and most of Japan's economy. 00:06:29
It is the world's largest megacity. 00:06:34
For now. 00:06:37
But in China, megacity clusters are coming together 00:06:38
with populations reaching 100 million people. 00:06:41
The Bohai Rim around Beijing, 00:06:44
the Yangtze River Delta around Shanghai 00:06:46
and the Pearl River Delta, 00:06:48
stretching from Hong Kong north to Guangzhou. 00:06:50
And in the middle, 00:06:52
the Chongqing-Changdu megacity cluster, 00:06:54
whose geographic footprint is almost the same size 00:06:57
as the country of Austria. 00:06:59
And any number of these megacity clusters 00:07:03
has a GDP approaching two trillion dollars. 00:07:05
That's almost the same as all of India today. 00:07:08
So imagine if our global diplomatic institutions, 00:07:11
such as the G20, 00:07:15
were to base their membership on economic size 00:07:17
rather than national representation. 00:07:20
Some Chinese megacities may be in and have a seat at the table, 00:07:23
while entire countries like Argentina or Indonesia would be out, 00:07:26
moving to India, 00:07:32
whose population will soon exceed that of China. 00:07:33
It too has a number of megacity clusters, 00:07:35
such as the Delhi capital region and Mumbai. 00:07:38
In the Middle East, Greater Tehran is absorbing one third of Iran's population. 00:07:42
Most of Egypt's 80 million people 00:07:46
live in the corridor between Cairo and Alexandria. 00:07:48
And in the Gulf, 00:07:51
a necklace of city-states is forming, 00:07:52
from Bahrain and Qatar 00:07:55
through the United Arab Emirates to Muscat in Oman. 00:07:56
And then there's Lagos, 00:08:00
Africa's largest city and Nigeria's commercial hub. 00:08:02
It has plans for a rail network 00:08:06
that will make it the anchor of a vast Atlantic coastal corridor 00:08:08
stretching across Benin, Togo and Ghana 00:08:13
to Abidjan, the capital of the Ivory Coast. 00:08:16
But these countries are suburbs of Lagos. 00:08:19
In a megacity world, countries can be suburbs of cities. 00:08:24
By 2030, we will have as many as 50 such megacity clusters in the world. 00:08:30
So which map tells you more? 00:08:37
our traditional map of 200 discrete nations 00:08:39
that hang on most of our walls, 00:08:42
or this map of the 50 megacity clusters. 00:08:44
And yet even this is incomplete, 00:08:48
because you cannot understand any individual megacity 00:08:50
without understanding its connections to the others. 00:08:54
People move to cities to be connected, 00:08:58
and connectivity is why these cities thrive. 00:09:01
Any number of them, such as Sao Paulo or Istanbul or Moscow, 00:09:05
has a GDP approaching or exceeding one-third to one-half 00:09:09
of their entire national GDP. 00:09:13
But equally importantly, 00:09:16
you cannot calculate any of their individual value 00:09:17
without understanding the role of the flows of people, 00:09:20
of finance, of technology, 00:09:24
that enable them to thrive. 00:09:26
Take the Gauteng province of South Africa, 00:09:28
which contains Johannesburg and the capital Pretoria. 00:09:31
It too represents just over a third of South Africa's GDP. 00:09:34
But equally importantly, 00:09:38
it is home to the offices of almost every single multinational corporation 00:09:40
that invests directly into South Africa 00:09:44
and indeed into the entire African continent. 00:09:47
Cities want to be part of global value chains. 00:09:50
They want to be part of this global division of labor. 00:09:54
That is how cities think. 00:09:58
I've never met a mayor who said to me, 00:10:00
I want my city to be cut off. 00:10:02
They know that their cities belong as much 00:10:04
to the global network civilization as to their home countries. 00:10:07
Now, for many people, urbanization causes great dismay. 00:10:14
They think cities are wrecking the planet. 00:10:18
But right now, there are more than 200 intercity learning networks thriving. 00:10:21
That is, as many as the number of intergovernmental organizations that we have. 00:10:27
And all of these intercity networks are devoted to one purpose, 00:10:31
mankind's number one priority in the 21st century. 00:10:35
Sustainable urbanization. 00:10:41
Is it working? 00:10:44
Let's take climate change. 00:10:46
We know that summit after summit in New York and Paris 00:10:48
is not going to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. 00:10:51
But what we can see is that transferring technology, 00:10:54
knowledge and policies between cities 00:10:58
is how we've actually begun to reduce the carbon intensity of our economies. 00:11:00
Cities are learning from each other 00:11:05
how to install zero-emissions buildings, 00:11:06
how to deploy electric car-sharing systems. 00:11:09
In major Chinese cities, 00:11:13
they're imposing quotas on the number of cars on the streets. 00:11:14
In many Western cities, 00:11:17
young people don't even want to drive anymore. 00:11:18
Cities have been part of the problem. 00:11:21
Now they are part of the solution. 00:11:24
Inequality is the other great challenge 00:11:27
to achieving sustainable urbanization. 00:11:29
When I travel through megacities from end to end, 00:11:31
it takes hours and days, 00:11:35
I experience the tragedy of extreme disparity 00:11:37
within the same geography. 00:11:41
And yet our global stock of financial assets 00:11:44
has never been larger, 00:11:47
approaching 300 trillion dollars. 00:11:48
That's almost four times the actual GDP of the world. 00:11:52
We have taken on such enormous debts 00:11:56
since the financial crisis. 00:11:58
but have we invested them in inclusive growth? 00:12:00
No, not yet. 00:12:04
Only when we build sufficient, affordable public housing, 00:12:07
when we invest in robust transportation networks 00:12:11
to allow people to connect to each other, 00:12:14
both physically and digitally, 00:12:17
that's when our divided cities and societies 00:12:19
will come to feel whole again. 00:12:21
And that is why infrastructure has just been included 00:12:27
in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, 00:12:30
because it enables all the others. 00:12:33
Our political and economic leaders are learning 00:12:36
that connectivity is not charity. 00:12:38
It's opportunity. 00:12:41
And that's why our financial community needs to understand 00:12:43
that connectivity is the most important asset class of the 21st century. 00:12:45
Now, cities can make the world more sustainable. 00:12:52
They can make the world more equitable. 00:12:56
I also believe that connectivity between cities 00:12:58
can make the world more peaceful. 00:13:01
If we look at regions of the world with dense relations across borders, 00:13:04
we see more trade, more investment and more stability. 00:13:08
We all know the story of Europe after World War II, 00:13:12
where industrial integration kicked off a process 00:13:15
that gave rise to today's peaceful European Union. 00:13:17
And you can see that Russia, by the way, 00:13:20
is the least connected of major powers in the international system. 00:13:23
And that goes a long way towards explaining the tensions today. 00:13:27
Countries that have less stake in the system 00:13:32
also have less to lose in disturbing it. 00:13:34
In North America, the lines that matter most on the map 00:13:38
are not the US-Canada border or the US-Mexico border, 00:13:41
but the dense network of roads and railways and pipelines 00:13:45
and electricity grids and even water canals 00:13:48
that are forming an integrated North American union. 00:13:51
North America does not need more walls. 00:13:55
It needs more connections. 00:13:58
But the real promise of connectivity is in the post-colonial world, 00:14:07
all of those regions where borders have historically been the most arbitrary 00:14:12
and where generations of leaders have had hostile relations with each other. 00:14:16
But now a new group of leaders has come into power 00:14:21
and is burying the hatchet. 00:14:23
Let's take Southeast Asia, 00:14:25
where high-speed rail networks are planned to connect Bangkok to Singapore 00:14:27
and trade corridors from Vietnam to Myanmar. 00:14:31
Now this region of 600 million people 00:14:34
coordinates its agricultural resources and its industrial output. 00:14:37
It is evolving into what I call a Pax Asiana, 00:14:41
a peace among Southeast Asian nations. 00:14:46
A similar phenomenon is underway in East Africa, 00:14:50
where a half-dozen countries are investing in railways 00:14:53
and multimodal corridors 00:14:56
so that landlocked countries can get their goods to market. 00:14:57
Now these countries coordinate their utilities 00:15:01
and their investment policies. 00:15:03
They, too, are evolving into a Pax Africana. 00:15:05
One region we know could especially use this kind of thinking 00:15:11
is the Middle East. 00:15:14
As Arab states tragically collapse, 00:15:16
what is left behind but the ancient cities 00:15:18
such as Cairo, Beirut and Baghdad? 00:15:21
In fact, the nearly 400 million people of the Arab world 00:15:24
are almost entirely urbanized. 00:15:29
As societies, as cities, 00:15:31
they are either water-rich or water-poor, 00:15:33
energy-rich or energy-poor. 00:15:35
And the only way to correct these mismatches 00:15:38
is not through more wars and more borders, 00:15:40
but through more connectivity of pipelines and water canals. 00:15:43
Now sadly, this is not yet the map of the Middle East. 00:15:48
But it should be. 00:15:52
A connected Pax Arabia, 00:15:54
internally integrated and productively connected to its neighbors, 00:15:58
Europe, Asia and Africa. 00:16:02
Now, it may not seem that connectivity is what we want right now 00:16:04
towards the world's most turbulent region, 00:16:07
but we know from history 00:16:10
that more connectivity is the only way to bring about stability in the long run, 00:16:12
because we know that in region after region, 00:16:16
connectivity is the new reality. 00:16:19
Cities and countries are learning to aggregate 00:16:22
into more peaceful and prosperous wholes. 00:16:25
But the real test is going to be Asia. 00:16:29
Can connectivity overcome the patterns of rivalry 00:16:33
among the great powers of the Far East? 00:16:36
After all, this is where World War III is supposed to break out. 00:16:38
Since the end of the Cold War, a quarter-century ago, 00:16:43
at least six major wars have been predicted for this region, 00:16:47
but none have broken out. 00:16:50
Take China and Taiwan. 00:16:53
In the 1990s, this was everyone's leading World War III scenario. 00:16:55
But since that time, 00:17:00
the trade and investment volumes across the Straits 00:17:01
have become so intense 00:17:04
that last November, leaders from both sides held a historic summit 00:17:06
to discuss eventual peaceful reunification. 00:17:10
And even the election of a nationalist party in Taiwan 00:17:14
that's pro-independence earlier this year 00:17:16
does not undermine this fundamental dynamic. 00:17:19
China and Japan have an even longer history of rivalry 00:17:23
and have been deploying their air forces and navies 00:17:26
to show their strength in island disputes. 00:17:28
But in recent years, 00:17:31
Japan has been making its largest foreign investments in China. 00:17:32
Japanese cars are selling in record numbers there. 00:17:36
And guess where the largest number of foreigners 00:17:40
residing in Japan today comes from? 00:17:43
You guessed it. 00:17:46
China. 00:17:47
China and India have fought a major war 00:17:49
and have three outstanding border disputes. 00:17:51
But today, India is the second-largest shareholder 00:17:53
in the Asia Infrastructure and Investment Bank. 00:17:56
They're building a trade corridor stretching from northeast India 00:17:58
through Myanmar and Bangladesh to southern China. 00:18:01
Their trade volume has grown from 20 billion dollars a decade ago 00:18:06
to 80 billion dollars today. 00:18:10
Nuclear-armed India and Pakistan have fought three wars 00:18:12
and continue to dispute Kashmir, 00:18:15
but they're also negotiating a most favored nation trade agreement 00:18:17
and want to complete a pipeline 00:18:21
stretching from Iran through Pakistan to India. 00:18:23
And let's talk about Iran. 00:18:27
Wasn't it just two years ago that war with Iran seemed inevitable? 00:18:29
Then why is every single major power rushing to do business there today? 00:18:33
Ladies and gentlemen, 00:18:40
I cannot guarantee that World War III will not break out, 00:18:41
but we can definitely see why it hasn't happened yet. 00:18:46
Even though Asia is home to the world's fastest-growing militaries, 00:18:50
these same countries are also investing billions of dollars 00:18:54
in each other's infrastructure and supply chains. 00:18:58
They are more interested in each other's functional geography 00:19:01
than in their political geography. 00:19:04
And that is why their leaders think twice, 00:19:07
step back from the brink 00:19:10
and decide to focus on economic ties over territorial tensions. 00:19:12
So often, it seems like the world is falling apart, 00:19:18
but building more connectivity 00:19:21
is how we put Humpty Dumpty back together again, 00:19:23
much better than before. 00:19:27
And by wrapping the world in such seamless physical and digital connectivity, 00:19:29
we evolve towards a world 00:19:34
in which people can rise above their geographic constraints. 00:19:36
We are the cells and vessels 00:19:40
pulsing through these global connectivity networks. 00:19:44
Every day, hundreds of millions of people go online 00:19:47
and work with people they've never met. 00:19:51
More than one billion people cross borders every year, 00:19:53
and that's expected to rise to three billion in the coming decade. 00:19:57
We don't just build connectivity, 00:20:02
we embody it. 00:20:04
We are the global network civilization, 00:20:06
and this is our map. 00:20:10
A map of the world in which geography is no longer destiny. 00:20:13
Instead, the future has a new and more hopeful motto. 00:20:18
Connectivity is destiny. 00:20:23
Thank you. 00:20:26
Subido por:
Carmen De Los R.
Licencia:
Dominio público
Visualizaciones:
68
Fecha:
30 de marzo de 2022 - 9:49
Visibilidad:
Público
Centro:
IES ATENEA
Duración:
20′ 35″
Relación de aspecto:
1.78:1
Resolución:
1280x720 píxeles
Tamaño:
78.70 MBytes

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